And They're Off: Position Players

So now that we've had some time to remove the brooms from our stomachs, I'm going to take some time to review the status of various parts of the Twins major league club, and what I think needs to be done in order to not only win the division again, but also win at least one game in the playoffs.

First off, here's how the Twins most common line-up looked at the end of the season:
1. CF Denard Span .359
2. SS Orlando Cabrera* .321
3. C Joe Mauer .438
4. RF Jason Kubel .383
5. 1B Michael Cuddyer .370
6. LF Delmon Young .312
7. 3B Matt Tolbert .278
8. DH Jose Morales .334
9. 2B Nick Punto .295

Statheads are always trying to figure out one stat that can represent how good a hitter is, FanGraphs focuses on weighted On-Base Average (wOBA), which I've included in the list. In short combines all of the results of a batter's plate appearances, with different weights given to different results based on how effective they are (with a home-run carrying the most weight). It's not perfect by any means, but it gives a pretty good basis for comparison.

Looking at the Twins' line-up, you notice how top-heavy it is. Only Jose Morales comes the closest to the "Core" (Spantasm, Mighty Morphin Mauer Ranger, Cudds, and Kubes) in offensive performance, and by "close" I mean .25 less, which is a lot. That also doesn't consider Morales' late-season slump, where he seemed completely clueless at the plate. He just doesn't have enough major-league at-bats for us to know if he's this good of a hitter. The rest are incomplete hitters. You have the Nick Puntos and Matt Tolberts, who know how to draw walks but don't hit for average or power. Then you also have the Delmon Youngs and Orlando Cabreras, who hit for average, some power, and can't draw a walk to save their life. Not that you'd find complete hitters in the bottom of any Major League line-up, which is a perfect place for Nick Punto, but having Orlando Cabrera batting second, getting more at-bats than the three best hitters on the team, is a travesty.

There are two philosophies for one and two hitters. There's the old school, where speed and "bat skills" (like bunting) are the most important. Then there's the new school, where the name of the game is to work the count, take walks, and get on base to be driven in by the power hitters in the middle of the line-up. That's what makes Peter Span so fly: he gets on base well AND he can bunt AND he has good speed to take extra bases. Cabrera is fast but doesn't steal many bases, and is a contact hitter with "bat skills." He doesn't strike out a lot, but rarely walks, insisting on using his bat to get on-base, which just doesn't work. Look at it this way: Cabrera walked eleven times, and hit into nine double plays. That's not the way to follow Gerard Denardieu. Sometimes I think managers bat crappy hitters second so they can justify sac-bunting on a lead-off hit.

Criticism is all well and good, but who's going to replace all these bad hitters? Lucky for the Twins, they have a great one already signed with plenty of experience. Justin Morneau will return, most likely to the clean-up spot, allowing Gardy to remove at least one bad hitter from the line-up. The most likely candidate to lose a regular spot, however, is Jose Morales. He can't play any position besides catcher. So the worst hitters in this year's final line-up will remain in next year's. This assumes that the roster will remain the same, which it definitely will not.

Free agency has never been a fruitful venture for the Twins, and that won't change anytime soon, because the Twins choose to give big contracts to their own players rather than other teams'. No big contracts, no big players, though with the way the economy's going, there will be a few bargains out there.

A lot of decent or used-to-be-decent middle infielder's will be available. Some names that pop out to me are Orlando Hudson, Khalil Greene, Marco Scutaro, Akinori Iwamura, Felipe Lopez. They aren't a great bunch, but if you look at who the Twins' ran out there against the Yankees, they don't have to be great to improve the line-up. The Twins have already priced themselves into Nick Punto as an everyday player, so he can fill in at whatever position the Twins don't sign.

That still leaves third base open, which could be filled by another free-agent like Joe Crede, who played spectacular defense with pretty one-dimensional offense when he was healthy. I doubt the Twins would bring him back for a season that would most likely end in his fourth major back surgery. Perhaps they'll think the grass of Target Field will allow for better health. The ideal situation, however, would be for Danny Valencia, one of the Twins' top prospects, to take over the position. He regressed at the plate in his first year at AAA, and from what I've read he's been inconsistent defensively, but he couldn't be more inconsistent as Brendan Harris, and his bat troubles do not rival Matt Tolbert's lack of talent. It's too much to hope for Valencia to gain the trust of Gardy and his staff, but it'd save the Twins a lot of trouble at the consistently troubling hot corner.

So in an ideal world, next year's opening day line-up would look like this:
1. CF Denard Span .361
2. 2B Orlando Hudson .340
3. C Joe Mauer .384
4. 1B Justin Morneau .358
5. RF Michael Cuddyer .346
6. DH Jason Kubel .349
7. LF Delmon Young .319
8. 3B Danny Valencia >.300 (hopefully, though Twinkie Town thinks he's no better than Tolbert)
9. SS Nick Punto .294

I used career numbers for all of the hitters, which is why some of them seem low. I fully expect the big guns to outperform their career numbers. Regardless of what they actually hit, that's the making of a good line-up. There isn't an easy out until Delmon comes up (no, one hot streak does not a new hitter make, just look at how he did against the Yankees until his foul balls). You could easily substitute Gomez into center for defensive purposes, removing Delmon Young's dreadful leather from the outfield. If you believe FanGraphs' measure of total value, Gomez with his glove is better than Delmon's marginally better bat.

The Twins are unlikely to sign Hudson, as they would have to give a draft pick to the Dodgers (assuming LA offers him arbitration) if they do. They won't be high bidders, but like last year with Joe Crede, they'll try to find a bargain. There may be some good ones to find. It's nice to assume all this extra revenue from Target Field will go straight to payroll. Payroll will increase, but I bet Bill Smith will use that increase to pay Joe Mauer what he deserves, extend Michael Cuddyer, and start thinking about what happens when Denard Span hits arbitration. What will remain for anything but a cheap one-year deal? What major impact can a cheap one-year deal have? If you've actually read all of this, what do you think?

All answers pending.

Next Up: Starting Pitching.