The Wolves still have a better record than the Cavaliers, but not for long.
I won't say that it was a lack of effort. The Wolves didn't give up until perhaps the waning, losing moments of the fourth quarter, but that's to be expected when the Cavs have had their way for most of the night. I'm not sure where their "1 vs 5" offense went, because it would have been nice to have doubled and tripled LeBron James for most of the night. The Wolves seemed to have that sort of strategy, but it did not work well. Cleveland had some beautiful ball movement, with and without James. It nearly seemed like a bit of toying, as the Wolves could not keep up with the Cavs' shooting past the second quarter.
Shooting remains the primary issue with the Wolves, though there were a few bright spots in the forms of Jonny Flynn and Corey Brewer. Until they start making more shots, the little pups won't compete. The Cavaliers collapsed into the paint, daring the Wolves to shoot beyond the arc. They did not make Cleveland pay. The Cavs are a great defensive team, and if I haven't said it before, I'll be saying it a lot more: The Wolves don't have a lot of talent.
Flynn, Jefferson, Brewer, and Wayne Ellington are the only players on the roster that figure into future plans. Kevin Love does too, but he's injured, and him coming back might create more issues than it solves. Flynn's showing some great scoring acumen, but the assists aren't there (poor shooting can be blamed) and he committing some bad turnovers. Al Jefferson is working his way back from injury, but also has showed some of his low-post scoring prowess. Brewer is also returning from injury, but has shown that he remains the Wolves' best defensive player. He leads the Wolves in blocks and steals, and has remained in decent control of his ridiculous athleticism.
After the other night's comeback, this game remained captivating... until all those dagger three-point-shots started falling. The Wolves couldn't answer with any of their own, and they would never threaten the Cavs commanding lead. Sometimes teams are just plain better than you. Kurt Rambis said before the game that this would be a good test. Well, we now know what we knew before: The Wolves aren't contending this year. They will get better though, and are already more compelling than last year's squad. Keep watching.
Friday, October 30, 2009
Thursday, October 29, 2009
Luck of the Irish
To tamper enthusiasm as usual, the Nets are not a very good team. They just traded away their best player (Vince Carter) after missing the playoffs. They've been projected to finish last in the Eastern Conference. The Wolves won their opener last year against a similarly bad team, and then lost their next eight games. All of that said, Jonny Freakin' Flynn!
The Wolves are a terrible shooting team, so this is the kind of effort they'll need to succeed. For almost the entire game they could not buy a basket. What changed was their defensive strategy. They took more gambles, forced more turnovers, which lead to some fast breaks, which allowed them to get next to the basket, where shooting issues become easily hidden.
Even when they weren't playing the press, the Wolves seemed to move well, though the ball stayed put more often than it should. They're obviously still learning the Triangle Offense, or whatever parts of it Kurt Rambis uses, but from watching this team play it seemed obvious that they had a plan. They had a system both on offense and on defense. Especially on defense.
The difference between Ryan Hollins and Al Jefferson on defense is remarkable. Hollins lacks strength, but the length and height of his body makes a profound impact altering and blocking shots. His energy also stands out, while Big Al seems very indifferent. Al was the Nets sole defensive focus, so he won't have such an offensively offensive game every night. He'll also get back his conditioning to keep up with the fast guards on the Wolves roster. In other words, don't panic that the Wolves' franchise player looked lethargic. He'll get his shot back, he'll get his wind back, and he'll resume his role in the low post, where there won't be double and triple teams every night.
Already the Wolves' new guards have looked much better defensively, and the help defense and rotations have been quick. Corey Brewer is a big part of that, but I also believe new, more disciplined coaching has instilled a better team effort. That's the most impressive thing at all. The Wolves' shooting is likely to struggle all year, but with a consistent defensive effort and getting to the line like they did in this opening win, they'll be able to compete with most teams in the NBA.
Did I mention that Jonny Flynn's game fits perfectly with that model? He's awesome, though definitely not Irish. He doesn't need any luck.
The Wolves are a terrible shooting team, so this is the kind of effort they'll need to succeed. For almost the entire game they could not buy a basket. What changed was their defensive strategy. They took more gambles, forced more turnovers, which lead to some fast breaks, which allowed them to get next to the basket, where shooting issues become easily hidden.
Even when they weren't playing the press, the Wolves seemed to move well, though the ball stayed put more often than it should. They're obviously still learning the Triangle Offense, or whatever parts of it Kurt Rambis uses, but from watching this team play it seemed obvious that they had a plan. They had a system both on offense and on defense. Especially on defense.
The difference between Ryan Hollins and Al Jefferson on defense is remarkable. Hollins lacks strength, but the length and height of his body makes a profound impact altering and blocking shots. His energy also stands out, while Big Al seems very indifferent. Al was the Nets sole defensive focus, so he won't have such an offensively offensive game every night. He'll also get back his conditioning to keep up with the fast guards on the Wolves roster. In other words, don't panic that the Wolves' franchise player looked lethargic. He'll get his shot back, he'll get his wind back, and he'll resume his role in the low post, where there won't be double and triple teams every night.
Already the Wolves' new guards have looked much better defensively, and the help defense and rotations have been quick. Corey Brewer is a big part of that, but I also believe new, more disciplined coaching has instilled a better team effort. That's the most impressive thing at all. The Wolves' shooting is likely to struggle all year, but with a consistent defensive effort and getting to the line like they did in this opening win, they'll be able to compete with most teams in the NBA.
Did I mention that Jonny Flynn's game fits perfectly with that model? He's awesome, though definitely not Irish. He doesn't need any luck.
Wednesday, October 28, 2009
So much for the North Pole
Hockey can be a weird game. Sometimes the team that is obviously dominating play for the majority of the game can lose. Sometimes even the weakest of shots can go in. Sometimes the home team can take a lead in under two minutes, just to squander it away.
The Wild played their most complete game. Throughout the first two periods, they applied tons of pressure to the Nashville defensemen, forcing early and errant passes with the forecheck, which led to turnovers and opportunities on goal. The Wild were all over the ice in the first period, yet Nashville led by two goals at the end of it.
Both of those goals came on "easy" shots, which Niklas Backstrom usually saves. The first was a quick back-hand lob by J.P. Dumont from ten feet. Backstrom used to have a problem with going down too early, and he seemed to get fly happy on this goal, as he went down while the puck went up and over his shoulder to find the net. It wasn't a major defensive lapse, just a poor play by the goalie. The second was a wrister from the blueline on the power play. It did not deflect, and while there was a screen, Backstrom normally would see and stop such a shot. He failed on this chance, completing the Wild's usual early deficit.
The beginning of the second period was a key moment for our Christmas Elves, as they have struggled to maintain effort on the other side of intermissions. Be it solid coaching from Papa Claus or making fewer toys during the break, the Wild kept it up, and finally got something to show for their work. An early power play led to an early wrister and goal for Brent Burns. An unblocked slap-shot from Clutterbuck found the top shelf. Owen Nolan then took the lead on a nice skate-trap and shoot. No, there weren't any shots between those goals. A minute and forty seven seconds and three shots were all the Wild needed to take the lead.
They needed another four to lose it on a four-on-four stemming from some extra-curriculars by Martin Havlat (how quaint). The Predators got a good rush after a failed Minnesota possession. The shot bounced off the toe of a Nashville player whom Marek Zidlicky failed to push away from the goal. It's really hard to buy Z as an actual defensemen. He hasn't made any of his signature bone-headed turnovers yet this season, but he's still held up to his reputation as skilled but soft and small. Maybe he can provide some trade value at the deadline, but I'm tired of having him cost the Wild these types of soft goals.
The third found the Wild starting to fall into a defensive shell, where it was from lack of energy or a strategic decision. It didn't work. When they received a potential game-changing power-play at the ten minute mark. I may have lied about Marek Zidlicky earlier. He HAS made one of his bone-headed turnovers. On that power-play, a round-the-bend dump into the Predator zone cleared the blue line, and Z was unable to corral it. Jerred Smithson did, and took it to the Wild zone, beating Backstrom on a toe-drag to take the lead for Nashville. More than a minute remained on the power-play, but the Wild's sails had lost their wind. A few more scoring chances with the empty net, but there would be no comeback this time.
Yet there were good things to take from this game. The Wild's effort through the first fifty minutes impressed the Hockey Gods enough for them to let some pucks go in. If they can shake off those bad plays instead of letting them ruin the night, they can compete in most games. Winning is the next step after that.
The Wild played their most complete game. Throughout the first two periods, they applied tons of pressure to the Nashville defensemen, forcing early and errant passes with the forecheck, which led to turnovers and opportunities on goal. The Wild were all over the ice in the first period, yet Nashville led by two goals at the end of it.
Both of those goals came on "easy" shots, which Niklas Backstrom usually saves. The first was a quick back-hand lob by J.P. Dumont from ten feet. Backstrom used to have a problem with going down too early, and he seemed to get fly happy on this goal, as he went down while the puck went up and over his shoulder to find the net. It wasn't a major defensive lapse, just a poor play by the goalie. The second was a wrister from the blueline on the power play. It did not deflect, and while there was a screen, Backstrom normally would see and stop such a shot. He failed on this chance, completing the Wild's usual early deficit.
The beginning of the second period was a key moment for our Christmas Elves, as they have struggled to maintain effort on the other side of intermissions. Be it solid coaching from Papa Claus or making fewer toys during the break, the Wild kept it up, and finally got something to show for their work. An early power play led to an early wrister and goal for Brent Burns. An unblocked slap-shot from Clutterbuck found the top shelf. Owen Nolan then took the lead on a nice skate-trap and shoot. No, there weren't any shots between those goals. A minute and forty seven seconds and three shots were all the Wild needed to take the lead.
They needed another four to lose it on a four-on-four stemming from some extra-curriculars by Martin Havlat (how quaint). The Predators got a good rush after a failed Minnesota possession. The shot bounced off the toe of a Nashville player whom Marek Zidlicky failed to push away from the goal. It's really hard to buy Z as an actual defensemen. He hasn't made any of his signature bone-headed turnovers yet this season, but he's still held up to his reputation as skilled but soft and small. Maybe he can provide some trade value at the deadline, but I'm tired of having him cost the Wild these types of soft goals.
The third found the Wild starting to fall into a defensive shell, where it was from lack of energy or a strategic decision. It didn't work. When they received a potential game-changing power-play at the ten minute mark. I may have lied about Marek Zidlicky earlier. He HAS made one of his bone-headed turnovers. On that power-play, a round-the-bend dump into the Predator zone cleared the blue line, and Z was unable to corral it. Jerred Smithson did, and took it to the Wild zone, beating Backstrom on a toe-drag to take the lead for Nashville. More than a minute remained on the power-play, but the Wild's sails had lost their wind. A few more scoring chances with the empty net, but there would be no comeback this time.
Yet there were good things to take from this game. The Wild's effort through the first fifty minutes impressed the Hockey Gods enough for them to let some pucks go in. If they can shake off those bad plays instead of letting them ruin the night, they can compete in most games. Winning is the next step after that.
Monday, October 26, 2009
Subtract 4 from 14 and you get 10
The Wild are coming home. Starting tonight, all of the major additions to the Wild will follow their new team to where they once lived. Chuck Fletcher and Todd Richards return to Pittsburgh, while Marty Havlat and Marion Gaborik return to their spurned prior cities. Only one of them seems to have made a difference.
Martin Havlat gave the Wild a big discount over the franchise's leading scorer, surrendering 2.5 million per year from Gaborik's price in exchange for a no-movement clause (like a no-trade, except it applies to the minors as well as another organization). Marion Gaborik hated Jacques Lemaire and Doug Risebrough because they treated him like a child, and so he refused a gigantic contract before last season. Fletcher did not extend an offer to Gabby, who signed with the New York Rangers for 7.5 million a year.
Havlat's been a ghost for the Wild. Hockey players are the opposite of offensive linemen: if you're not noticing them, they're doing a bad job. Mikko Koivu's been making some nice moves with the puck; even if they don't result in goals, he's still showing the effort to not only keep the puck, but keep the puck moving. Havlat's missing the box score and any "eye pop" in his first season with the Wild. At least until he came home tonight.
Marty's line started the game, and it didn't hesitate to put some pressure on the 'Hawks, with a little razzle dazzle... that resulted in an easy save by Cristobal Huet, statistically one of the worst starting goaltenders in the league. Havnot put in a couple more good shifts, before taking the rest of the night off. He's failed to consistently flash for the Wild, and after tonight's momentary blip of activity, I'm going to venture a guess that his effort is the problem.
Havlat showed up for his old fans, while Gaborik has showed up all season for the Rangers. He's tied for the league-lead with ten goals. Translate those to the Wild, and they're at least middle of the road as far as scoring goes. The record might be a bit better too.
The Wild just aren't that good. Havlat has failed to make his teammates better, and so has just about every other Wild player. They just aren't scoring, and I don't see any evidence that they're going to start anytime soon.
Martin Havlat gave the Wild a big discount over the franchise's leading scorer, surrendering 2.5 million per year from Gaborik's price in exchange for a no-movement clause (like a no-trade, except it applies to the minors as well as another organization). Marion Gaborik hated Jacques Lemaire and Doug Risebrough because they treated him like a child, and so he refused a gigantic contract before last season. Fletcher did not extend an offer to Gabby, who signed with the New York Rangers for 7.5 million a year.
Havlat's been a ghost for the Wild. Hockey players are the opposite of offensive linemen: if you're not noticing them, they're doing a bad job. Mikko Koivu's been making some nice moves with the puck; even if they don't result in goals, he's still showing the effort to not only keep the puck, but keep the puck moving. Havlat's missing the box score and any "eye pop" in his first season with the Wild. At least until he came home tonight.
Marty's line started the game, and it didn't hesitate to put some pressure on the 'Hawks, with a little razzle dazzle... that resulted in an easy save by Cristobal Huet, statistically one of the worst starting goaltenders in the league. Havnot put in a couple more good shifts, before taking the rest of the night off. He's failed to consistently flash for the Wild, and after tonight's momentary blip of activity, I'm going to venture a guess that his effort is the problem.
Havlat showed up for his old fans, while Gaborik has showed up all season for the Rangers. He's tied for the league-lead with ten goals. Translate those to the Wild, and they're at least middle of the road as far as scoring goes. The record might be a bit better too.
The Wild just aren't that good. Havlat has failed to make his teammates better, and so has just about every other Wild player. They just aren't scoring, and I don't see any evidence that they're going to start anytime soon.
Sunday, October 25, 2009
You already knew he was a waffler.
This was a complete game by the Vikings. The defense held the high-flying Steelers to thirteen points. Three in the second half. The Steelers had been averaging near 300 yards passing per game. The Vikings held Big "WWE" Ben to 147. It was a defensive struggle all the way, with the only major defensive lapse being the forty yard touchdown to Mike "who the heck are you" Wallace at the end of the first half.
The Vikings did all the big things right. They dominated on defense, got a return TD on special teams without allowing Pittsburgh any damaging returns of their own, and though their offense struggled in the beginning, they found a groove on several drives. The big picture didn't cost them, the big plays did. The Steelers defense scored more points than the Vikings offense, because of two fourth quarter turnovers. Both by, though not necessarily caused, by our man Brett. Both in, or very close, to the red zone.
The first play should not have happened. On the preceding play, Jeff Dugan's cut block was called a trip, negating Sidney "#1" Rice's ten yard touchdown catch. Instead of a seventeen to thirteen lead, Favre was stripped by Brett, the Keisel version. LaMarr Woodley picked up the ball, and played James Harrison by returning the ball into the Vikings end zone.
Any defensive touchdown in the fourth quarter would normally spell game over, but Percy Harvin played The Man for the Vikings yet again, running over a weak tackle from the kicker to the endzone. He might have saved the day for the Vikings, who forced a punt. That left over three minutes for Our Man Brett to construct a game winning drive.
He needed some help, and he got it from Adrian Peterson. All Day finally included himself in the two minute drill, taking a screen on third-and-five nigh thirty yards to put the Vikings in tying field goal range yet again. Yet again, the Steelers would outscore the Vikings on their own drive. This time there was no one to blame except Chester Taylor and Brett Favre, who failed to complete a middle screen. Taylor got his hands on the football, but could not control it, deflecting the ball to Keyaron Fox, who also mimicked James Harrison by scoring the dagger-in-the-heart touchdown.
Neither of the deciding plays were guys trying to do too much. Good effort by Keisel caused the fumble, and bad concentration by the Vikings gave the ball to Pittsburgh on the last significant play of the game. Two plays. That's all that lost the Vikings this game. Reductive projections are always dangerous, but in this case we know the Refs cost the Vikings a touchdown. If the Refs had their heads on straight? Vikings win. That's how narrowly this game escaped the Vikings grasp.
Just like last week's win asked more questions, this week's loss answered all of them. This is a strong football team. As long as they avoid costly turnovers, hell as long as they avoid the other team scoring on costly turnovers, they can hang with anyone in the NFL. On to Green Bay.
The Vikings did all the big things right. They dominated on defense, got a return TD on special teams without allowing Pittsburgh any damaging returns of their own, and though their offense struggled in the beginning, they found a groove on several drives. The big picture didn't cost them, the big plays did. The Steelers defense scored more points than the Vikings offense, because of two fourth quarter turnovers. Both by, though not necessarily caused, by our man Brett. Both in, or very close, to the red zone.
The first play should not have happened. On the preceding play, Jeff Dugan's cut block was called a trip, negating Sidney "#1" Rice's ten yard touchdown catch. Instead of a seventeen to thirteen lead, Favre was stripped by Brett, the Keisel version. LaMarr Woodley picked up the ball, and played James Harrison by returning the ball into the Vikings end zone.
Any defensive touchdown in the fourth quarter would normally spell game over, but Percy Harvin played The Man for the Vikings yet again, running over a weak tackle from the kicker to the endzone. He might have saved the day for the Vikings, who forced a punt. That left over three minutes for Our Man Brett to construct a game winning drive.
He needed some help, and he got it from Adrian Peterson. All Day finally included himself in the two minute drill, taking a screen on third-and-five nigh thirty yards to put the Vikings in tying field goal range yet again. Yet again, the Steelers would outscore the Vikings on their own drive. This time there was no one to blame except Chester Taylor and Brett Favre, who failed to complete a middle screen. Taylor got his hands on the football, but could not control it, deflecting the ball to Keyaron Fox, who also mimicked James Harrison by scoring the dagger-in-the-heart touchdown.
Neither of the deciding plays were guys trying to do too much. Good effort by Keisel caused the fumble, and bad concentration by the Vikings gave the ball to Pittsburgh on the last significant play of the game. Two plays. That's all that lost the Vikings this game. Reductive projections are always dangerous, but in this case we know the Refs cost the Vikings a touchdown. If the Refs had their heads on straight? Vikings win. That's how narrowly this game escaped the Vikings grasp.
Just like last week's win asked more questions, this week's loss answered all of them. This is a strong football team. As long as they avoid costly turnovers, hell as long as they avoid the other team scoring on costly turnovers, they can hang with anyone in the NFL. On to Green Bay.
Saturday, October 24, 2009
Clutterbucked
The Wild continued their inspired effort at the Xcel Energy Center, and they would need every bit of it to top the Hurricanes.
They got a boon of returning injured players, as Petr Sykora and Cal Clutterbuck made their way back to the ice. Yes, the same Clutterbuck who was supposed to be out for weeks, laced up and took the rink. The two wingers replaced centers James Sheppard and Benoit Pouliot: two young players, two top-ten Risebrough draft picks, and two healthy scratches for their lackluster hustle and results (though I thought Pouliot had been playing better).
The Wild hit the ice running... uh... skating and really took it to the 'Canes, drawing two penalties in the first ten minutes of play. Their power play looked pretty good, but the Wild again did not finish the chances they generated. After the consecutive power plays, Shane Hnidy would commit one of his own, and the Wild's penalty killing streak finally ended. They kept their energy up for most of the first period, and finally equalized on Andrew Brunette's savvy power play goal. He got behind the goal, and shot it off Cam Ward's back and into the goal. Nice.
In the second period, the boys in green finally got a break, as Owen Nolan's forecheck/dump-in went straight to Kyle Brodziak, who made a nice fake over to his backhand past Cam Ward. It was the kind of finish the Wild have lacked this season.
Of course, with that kind of luck, karma would strike back. A half-rink pass left Antti Miettinen all alone but flat-footed in the Carolina zone. He stood still while his teammates and opponents caught up, and made the wrong choice by back-handing towards the middle instead of bouncing it off the boards. It cost him and the Wild, as the 'Canes intercepted the pass, and scored on the two-on-one rush that followed.
As usual, the Wild gave up more than one of those odd-man rushes, but yet again Niklas Backstrom bailed the Wild out. He didn't make as many saves as his very capable counterpart, but the saves he did make were essential, spectacular, and game-saving. He had some help as well.
Greg Zanon is a beast. He had six blocked shots, one crouching in the net, another clear of a puck in the crease, and the primary assist on the game winning goal. He's easily been the Wild's best defender and best free-agent signing from the summer.
Cal Clutterbuck is the highlight of the night, and of the Risebrough era. Captain Koivu entered the zone as the overtime ticked away, and snapped a wrister towards the net. The puck bounced off of the 'tender Ward, right onto the tape of Zanon. Chuck Fletcher's best move found the post, but Risebrough's best move was there. The puck bounced off Clutterbuck's face, and landed in the slot as Cal leaped, lunged, and fell as he back-handed the puck into the open net. It was gritty and spectacular at the same time. The Wild's best goal this season appropriately won them the game.
The next step will be having those energetic, offensively and defensively active sticks follow the Wild away from the XCel. With their healthy bodies getting back into the swing of things, I'm optimistic. Though that optimism's been misplaced before.
They got a boon of returning injured players, as Petr Sykora and Cal Clutterbuck made their way back to the ice. Yes, the same Clutterbuck who was supposed to be out for weeks, laced up and took the rink. The two wingers replaced centers James Sheppard and Benoit Pouliot: two young players, two top-ten Risebrough draft picks, and two healthy scratches for their lackluster hustle and results (though I thought Pouliot had been playing better).
The Wild hit the ice running... uh... skating and really took it to the 'Canes, drawing two penalties in the first ten minutes of play. Their power play looked pretty good, but the Wild again did not finish the chances they generated. After the consecutive power plays, Shane Hnidy would commit one of his own, and the Wild's penalty killing streak finally ended. They kept their energy up for most of the first period, and finally equalized on Andrew Brunette's savvy power play goal. He got behind the goal, and shot it off Cam Ward's back and into the goal. Nice.
In the second period, the boys in green finally got a break, as Owen Nolan's forecheck/dump-in went straight to Kyle Brodziak, who made a nice fake over to his backhand past Cam Ward. It was the kind of finish the Wild have lacked this season.
Of course, with that kind of luck, karma would strike back. A half-rink pass left Antti Miettinen all alone but flat-footed in the Carolina zone. He stood still while his teammates and opponents caught up, and made the wrong choice by back-handing towards the middle instead of bouncing it off the boards. It cost him and the Wild, as the 'Canes intercepted the pass, and scored on the two-on-one rush that followed.
As usual, the Wild gave up more than one of those odd-man rushes, but yet again Niklas Backstrom bailed the Wild out. He didn't make as many saves as his very capable counterpart, but the saves he did make were essential, spectacular, and game-saving. He had some help as well.
Greg Zanon is a beast. He had six blocked shots, one crouching in the net, another clear of a puck in the crease, and the primary assist on the game winning goal. He's easily been the Wild's best defender and best free-agent signing from the summer.
Cal Clutterbuck is the highlight of the night, and of the Risebrough era. Captain Koivu entered the zone as the overtime ticked away, and snapped a wrister towards the net. The puck bounced off of the 'tender Ward, right onto the tape of Zanon. Chuck Fletcher's best move found the post, but Risebrough's best move was there. The puck bounced off Clutterbuck's face, and landed in the slot as Cal leaped, lunged, and fell as he back-handed the puck into the open net. It was gritty and spectacular at the same time. The Wild's best goal this season appropriately won them the game.
The next step will be having those energetic, offensively and defensively active sticks follow the Wild away from the XCel. With their healthy bodies getting back into the swing of things, I'm optimistic. Though that optimism's been misplaced before.
Friday, October 23, 2009
Looks like a long winter
I haven't been the greatest Wild fan since its inception, so I got curious. Looking at each NHL season since 2000, the Wild have never ranked in the top-fifteen in goals scored. That's mostly due to Jacque Lemaire's "don't lose" system, which never let defensemen join the attack, and kept the center from forechecking as well. In an ideal scenario, no goals would be scored, and some luck in the overtime/shootout would give the Wild a better than .500 record. Marion Gaborik did enough to actually score enough goals, but now both he, Doug Risebrough, Lemaire are gone.
What's left are Gaborik's replacement (Marty Havlat), Mikko Koivu, Brent Burns, and all the mediocre players that Risebrough signed and drafted during his tenure. As a collection, they don't have many offensive skills. There were chances, but they couldn't finish. Chris Mason admittedly made some great saves, but so did Chris Anderson, Roberto Luongo, Nikolai Khabibulin, Jonas Hiller, Evgeni Nabokov, Jonathan Quick, Jean-Sebastien Giguere, and Steve Mason. So which is more likely, that all of those goaltenders are spectacular or that the Wild just don't take good shots?
The Wild's only goal was a rebound that just barely squirted through Mason's pads. They seemed to keep up a pretty good effort, but the inability to control the puck in key situations lead to multiple odd man rushes, which Backstrom can only stop so many of those. Niklas played spectacularly after a few rebound issues early on. He's by far the Wild's best player, and has single-handedly kept the Wild in more than one game. He deserves better goal support.
Which won't happen until the opposing goaltenders stop being so spectacular. Or maybe until the Wild are completely healthy, and take shots on the edges of the net, instead of the middle, where those spectacular goaltenders have an easy time of getting it. I'm talking to you, Captain.
What's left are Gaborik's replacement (Marty Havlat), Mikko Koivu, Brent Burns, and all the mediocre players that Risebrough signed and drafted during his tenure. As a collection, they don't have many offensive skills. There were chances, but they couldn't finish. Chris Mason admittedly made some great saves, but so did Chris Anderson, Roberto Luongo, Nikolai Khabibulin, Jonas Hiller, Evgeni Nabokov, Jonathan Quick, Jean-Sebastien Giguere, and Steve Mason. So which is more likely, that all of those goaltenders are spectacular or that the Wild just don't take good shots?
The Wild's only goal was a rebound that just barely squirted through Mason's pads. They seemed to keep up a pretty good effort, but the inability to control the puck in key situations lead to multiple odd man rushes, which Backstrom can only stop so many of those. Niklas played spectacularly after a few rebound issues early on. He's by far the Wild's best player, and has single-handedly kept the Wild in more than one game. He deserves better goal support.
Which won't happen until the opposing goaltenders stop being so spectacular. Or maybe until the Wild are completely healthy, and take shots on the edges of the net, instead of the middle, where those spectacular goaltenders have an easy time of getting it. I'm talking to you, Captain.
Wednesday, October 21, 2009
Home Sweet Home
No shoot-out is a great victory. If you listen to most puckheads, the shoot-out shouldn't be a part of hockey. If you listen to playoff rules, where the best professional hockey displays itself, the shootout stays invisible. Not that I want to take away from a refreshing change of pace.
Martin Havlat returned, and new acquisition Chuck Kobasew made his debut, but the real story was the debut of Mikko Koivu as the Wild's first permanent captain. Perhaps it was the home crowd, but it seems like taking his rightful place as the official leader inspired the team... to not get run over.
The first period the Wild showed their usual glimpses of dominant play. The puck rarely left the Colorado zone, and when it did, the Wild recovered, requiring Backstrom to make a below-average number of spectacular saves. The same problems remain however, as Brent Burns top-shelf rebound collection made the only tally of a period. The Wild outshot the Avalanche 13-6 in the period. Several of those thirteen shots were good chances on the four penalties the snowboard-killers committed. What the shots on goal don't include are the missed shots, of which Brent Burns' post-job was a part.
Burns played a big role in the undoing of the Wild's great first period effort. After the Avalanche tied it on a loose rebound, Burns committed one of several terrible turnovers in the Wild's own zone. Brent's led to a well-executed two-on-one break that Backstrom nearly turned away, but a third Avalanche overwhelmed the Wild 'tender. These are the types of turnovers that make the Wild one of the worst five-on-five teams in the NHL.
It's difficult to figure out why the Wild play so terribly at even-strength, even more so because they are still strong on special teams, which showed in tonight's victory. The Captain tied up the game in the third period. On the power play. It was one of the prettiest goals the Wild have scored all season, with Antti Miettinen's quick centering pass finding the net from Mikko Koivu's sweet sweet blade.
The Wild played with a great deal of discipline, giving the Avalanche a man advantage only twice (making quick work of the CO power-play as well). Combined with their own strong power-play, the Wild aren't too far away. They just need more outstanding play from Backstrom, and to learn to shoot it into the net, instead of the not.
Martin Havlat returned, and new acquisition Chuck Kobasew made his debut, but the real story was the debut of Mikko Koivu as the Wild's first permanent captain. Perhaps it was the home crowd, but it seems like taking his rightful place as the official leader inspired the team... to not get run over.
The first period the Wild showed their usual glimpses of dominant play. The puck rarely left the Colorado zone, and when it did, the Wild recovered, requiring Backstrom to make a below-average number of spectacular saves. The same problems remain however, as Brent Burns top-shelf rebound collection made the only tally of a period. The Wild outshot the Avalanche 13-6 in the period. Several of those thirteen shots were good chances on the four penalties the snowboard-killers committed. What the shots on goal don't include are the missed shots, of which Brent Burns' post-job was a part.
Burns played a big role in the undoing of the Wild's great first period effort. After the Avalanche tied it on a loose rebound, Burns committed one of several terrible turnovers in the Wild's own zone. Brent's led to a well-executed two-on-one break that Backstrom nearly turned away, but a third Avalanche overwhelmed the Wild 'tender. These are the types of turnovers that make the Wild one of the worst five-on-five teams in the NHL.
It's difficult to figure out why the Wild play so terribly at even-strength, even more so because they are still strong on special teams, which showed in tonight's victory. The Captain tied up the game in the third period. On the power play. It was one of the prettiest goals the Wild have scored all season, with Antti Miettinen's quick centering pass finding the net from Mikko Koivu's sweet sweet blade.
The Wild played with a great deal of discipline, giving the Avalanche a man advantage only twice (making quick work of the CO power-play as well). Combined with their own strong power-play, the Wild aren't too far away. They just need more outstanding play from Backstrom, and to learn to shoot it into the net, instead of the not.
Sunday, October 18, 2009
Chillyball
A win is still a win, but when you win like this, it's about the worst one can feel after a win. I was at the game. I screamed my guts out, much to the chagrin of the neighboring fans. My mood while ruining my voice varied greatly however.
The game could not have started better. The Vikings made the rare decision to receive the ball on the kickoff, and it paid off with a quick touchdown drive, set up by All Day's first of over twenty yards in a few weeks. He stayed quiet for the rest of the first half, but he wasn't needed.
Brett Favre has transformed this offense. The threat of Peterson gives Favre very good looks, and he's taking advantage. After a season with a forty-seven:fifty-three pass:rush ratio, the Vikings have already passed ten more times than they've ran. That's a great thing because, after the first two games of dinking and dunking, Brett's leash is off. He's developing a good rapport with Sidney Rice between the red zones and with Visanthe Shiancoe in the red zone. What's odd is that Bernard Berrian hasn't gotten a lot of long looks, which seems a side-effect of the play-calling. Either way, you know the offense is absolutely humming.
The defense is humming in a different way. When the pass rush doesn't hurry the quarterback, e.g. the entire fourth quarter, the secondary lets receivers get open. It didn't help that Antoine Winfield got hurt (seriously, why can't they announce that at the stadium?), putting Karl Pay-dirt-for-you-mah into the line-up. As you can imagine, it did not work well. He overran Mark Clayton on his touchdown catch, in addition to completely whiffing (with his half of the Vikings defense) on Ray Rice for a big preface to another touchdown. That's fourteen points that Winfield might have prevented. He's one of their best defenders. When he's not on the field, twenty one points in the fourth quarter happens, game-winning field-goal drive happens, and a well-deserved loss should have happened.
Yet that gift-wrapped win could have been taken on the Vikings last offensive possession. Third and nine at the Baltimore seventeen yard line. Childress had ridden Favre's hot right arm all day, yet with the game within grasp, Chilly stepped off his steed and rode another. Peterson had a great game as well, but the likelihood of gaining nine yards on a draw play on such a crucial play? Very low. I've no doubt that Childress would say he was trying to catch the defense off-guard. The truth is he settled. He settled for the small hope that his tired, injury-depleted defense could do what they hadn't done the entire fourth quarter. He played so as not to lose. He did not play to win, and it's a miracle they ended up winning despite him. It was Chillyball at its very finest, in the most leveraged of moments. Kudos to Brad for collecting all this great talent. It does not make him a good game-manager.
The Vikes are undefeated, but I'm still bitter that Childress made me feel otherwise.
The game could not have started better. The Vikings made the rare decision to receive the ball on the kickoff, and it paid off with a quick touchdown drive, set up by All Day's first of over twenty yards in a few weeks. He stayed quiet for the rest of the first half, but he wasn't needed.
Brett Favre has transformed this offense. The threat of Peterson gives Favre very good looks, and he's taking advantage. After a season with a forty-seven:fifty-three pass:rush ratio, the Vikings have already passed ten more times than they've ran. That's a great thing because, after the first two games of dinking and dunking, Brett's leash is off. He's developing a good rapport with Sidney Rice between the red zones and with Visanthe Shiancoe in the red zone. What's odd is that Bernard Berrian hasn't gotten a lot of long looks, which seems a side-effect of the play-calling. Either way, you know the offense is absolutely humming.
The defense is humming in a different way. When the pass rush doesn't hurry the quarterback, e.g. the entire fourth quarter, the secondary lets receivers get open. It didn't help that Antoine Winfield got hurt (seriously, why can't they announce that at the stadium?), putting Karl Pay-dirt-for-you-mah into the line-up. As you can imagine, it did not work well. He overran Mark Clayton on his touchdown catch, in addition to completely whiffing (with his half of the Vikings defense) on Ray Rice for a big preface to another touchdown. That's fourteen points that Winfield might have prevented. He's one of their best defenders. When he's not on the field, twenty one points in the fourth quarter happens, game-winning field-goal drive happens, and a well-deserved loss should have happened.
Yet that gift-wrapped win could have been taken on the Vikings last offensive possession. Third and nine at the Baltimore seventeen yard line. Childress had ridden Favre's hot right arm all day, yet with the game within grasp, Chilly stepped off his steed and rode another. Peterson had a great game as well, but the likelihood of gaining nine yards on a draw play on such a crucial play? Very low. I've no doubt that Childress would say he was trying to catch the defense off-guard. The truth is he settled. He settled for the small hope that his tired, injury-depleted defense could do what they hadn't done the entire fourth quarter. He played so as not to lose. He did not play to win, and it's a miracle they ended up winning despite him. It was Chillyball at its very finest, in the most leveraged of moments. Kudos to Brad for collecting all this great talent. It does not make him a good game-manager.
The Vikes are undefeated, but I'm still bitter that Childress made me feel otherwise.
Friday, October 16, 2009
What the Wild lack.
Nick Schultz pinched to complete a great forecheck, Eric Belanger cleaned up the turnover, and Kyle Brodziak as he glided toward the net. He scanned his options before lifting his stick, lining up his shot, and then mimicking the shot to put it past the sprawling defender. A good idea, but the Oiler caught a piece of the puck, which squirted to Marek Zidlicky, who passed to Belanger. Eric shot, where Benoit Pouliot was waiting to put it home.
Later in the match, Benoit Pouliot had the puck on the Edmonton goal line. He gave it to Owen Nolan behind the net, who then fed a netward Pouliot, who merely backhanded it into the pads of Khabibulin.
There's been plenty of talk about the amount of shots the Wild take and allow. Those numbers work to the Wild's favor. They are fourth in the NHL in shots on goal. They are ninth in the NHL in shots on goal allowed. As the terrible TV announcers keep repeating, it's the quality.
On the first goal of the game, not far into the second period, a loose puck trickled vertically away from the Wild net, before Mike Comrie gained possession before quickly passing to Robert Nilsson, who fed the unchecked Comrie for the open-netter netted easily by the Oiler.
The Wild have played well in spurts, maintaining their on-again, off-again relationship with maintaining offensive pressure. They forecheck aggressively, forcing the other team into turnovers, on which the Wild have yet to consistently capitalize, as many of their players tend to glide and watch the play unfold.
As they did on Edmonton's second goal. Patrick O'Sullivan robbed Derek "Not A Real Hockey Player" Boogard in the Wild zone. As Danny Boy looped behind the Wild net, Brent Burns weakly checked him and kept on him while Nathan Smith followed him as well. They both turned their backs on Dustin Penner, who was about as wide open as you can be, fifteen feet away from the net. Irish didn't miss him, and he didn't miss the opening left as Josh Harding moved all the way from the other post.
The Wild outshot the Oilers 31-19. The first thing that stands out about the game tonight is how cool the Edmonton goals were. Three of the five were "alley-oops," passes hitting the scorer's stick in stride, setting up an easily converted scoring chance. Beautiful goals draw additional fans to hockey, and these were beautiful goals. The Wild score their pair with some grit, but when an offense is really clicking, or the defense is standing around oo-ing and aw-ing, those "alley-oops" will happen. How many of those have the Wild scored this season? None that I can remember.
Pouliot's goal is a great example of what Todd Richards' forechecking system can do, but Brodziak's failed deek is an example of how little skill the Wild work with on a nightly business. They need more playmaking ability. Not just passing ability, but to do the little deeks and moves that turn Pouliot's backhand into the hesitations that Corey Perry used to beat Backstrom in Anaheim. That turn Brodziak's flailing faked shot into the snapshot Dany Heatley used on the power-play in San Jose.
The Wild's injured players will return, bringing some more skill back to the line-up. Until then, grit will have to do. Translating it to the defensive end wouldn't hurt either.
Later in the match, Benoit Pouliot had the puck on the Edmonton goal line. He gave it to Owen Nolan behind the net, who then fed a netward Pouliot, who merely backhanded it into the pads of Khabibulin.
There's been plenty of talk about the amount of shots the Wild take and allow. Those numbers work to the Wild's favor. They are fourth in the NHL in shots on goal. They are ninth in the NHL in shots on goal allowed. As the terrible TV announcers keep repeating, it's the quality.
On the first goal of the game, not far into the second period, a loose puck trickled vertically away from the Wild net, before Mike Comrie gained possession before quickly passing to Robert Nilsson, who fed the unchecked Comrie for the open-netter netted easily by the Oiler.
The Wild have played well in spurts, maintaining their on-again, off-again relationship with maintaining offensive pressure. They forecheck aggressively, forcing the other team into turnovers, on which the Wild have yet to consistently capitalize, as many of their players tend to glide and watch the play unfold.
As they did on Edmonton's second goal. Patrick O'Sullivan robbed Derek "Not A Real Hockey Player" Boogard in the Wild zone. As Danny Boy looped behind the Wild net, Brent Burns weakly checked him and kept on him while Nathan Smith followed him as well. They both turned their backs on Dustin Penner, who was about as wide open as you can be, fifteen feet away from the net. Irish didn't miss him, and he didn't miss the opening left as Josh Harding moved all the way from the other post.
The Wild outshot the Oilers 31-19. The first thing that stands out about the game tonight is how cool the Edmonton goals were. Three of the five were "alley-oops," passes hitting the scorer's stick in stride, setting up an easily converted scoring chance. Beautiful goals draw additional fans to hockey, and these were beautiful goals. The Wild score their pair with some grit, but when an offense is really clicking, or the defense is standing around oo-ing and aw-ing, those "alley-oops" will happen. How many of those have the Wild scored this season? None that I can remember.
Pouliot's goal is a great example of what Todd Richards' forechecking system can do, but Brodziak's failed deek is an example of how little skill the Wild work with on a nightly business. They need more playmaking ability. Not just passing ability, but to do the little deeks and moves that turn Pouliot's backhand into the hesitations that Corey Perry used to beat Backstrom in Anaheim. That turn Brodziak's flailing faked shot into the snapshot Dany Heatley used on the power-play in San Jose.
The Wild's injured players will return, bringing some more skill back to the line-up. Until then, grit will have to do. Translating it to the defensive end wouldn't hurt either.
Thursday, October 15, 2009
And They're Off: Position Players
So now that we've had some time to remove the brooms from our stomachs, I'm going to take some time to review the status of various parts of the Twins major league club, and what I think needs to be done in order to not only win the division again, but also win at least one game in the playoffs.
First off, here's how the Twins most common line-up looked at the end of the season:
1. CF Denard Span .359
2. SS Orlando Cabrera* .321
3. C Joe Mauer .438
4. RF Jason Kubel .383
5. 1B Michael Cuddyer .370
6. LF Delmon Young .312
7. 3B Matt Tolbert .278
8. DH Jose Morales .334
9. 2B Nick Punto .295
Statheads are always trying to figure out one stat that can represent how good a hitter is, FanGraphs focuses on weighted On-Base Average (wOBA), which I've included in the list. In short combines all of the results of a batter's plate appearances, with different weights given to different results based on how effective they are (with a home-run carrying the most weight). It's not perfect by any means, but it gives a pretty good basis for comparison.
Looking at the Twins' line-up, you notice how top-heavy it is. Only Jose Morales comes the closest to the "Core" (Spantasm, Mighty Morphin Mauer Ranger, Cudds, and Kubes) in offensive performance, and by "close" I mean .25 less, which is a lot. That also doesn't consider Morales' late-season slump, where he seemed completely clueless at the plate. He just doesn't have enough major-league at-bats for us to know if he's this good of a hitter. The rest are incomplete hitters. You have the Nick Puntos and Matt Tolberts, who know how to draw walks but don't hit for average or power. Then you also have the Delmon Youngs and Orlando Cabreras, who hit for average, some power, and can't draw a walk to save their life. Not that you'd find complete hitters in the bottom of any Major League line-up, which is a perfect place for Nick Punto, but having Orlando Cabrera batting second, getting more at-bats than the three best hitters on the team, is a travesty.
There are two philosophies for one and two hitters. There's the old school, where speed and "bat skills" (like bunting) are the most important. Then there's the new school, where the name of the game is to work the count, take walks, and get on base to be driven in by the power hitters in the middle of the line-up. That's what makes Peter Span so fly: he gets on base well AND he can bunt AND he has good speed to take extra bases. Cabrera is fast but doesn't steal many bases, and is a contact hitter with "bat skills." He doesn't strike out a lot, but rarely walks, insisting on using his bat to get on-base, which just doesn't work. Look at it this way: Cabrera walked eleven times, and hit into nine double plays. That's not the way to follow Gerard Denardieu. Sometimes I think managers bat crappy hitters second so they can justify sac-bunting on a lead-off hit.
Criticism is all well and good, but who's going to replace all these bad hitters? Lucky for the Twins, they have a great one already signed with plenty of experience. Justin Morneau will return, most likely to the clean-up spot, allowing Gardy to remove at least one bad hitter from the line-up. The most likely candidate to lose a regular spot, however, is Jose Morales. He can't play any position besides catcher. So the worst hitters in this year's final line-up will remain in next year's. This assumes that the roster will remain the same, which it definitely will not.
Free agency has never been a fruitful venture for the Twins, and that won't change anytime soon, because the Twins choose to give big contracts to their own players rather than other teams'. No big contracts, no big players, though with the way the economy's going, there will be a few bargains out there.
A lot of decent or used-to-be-decent middle infielder's will be available. Some names that pop out to me are Orlando Hudson, Khalil Greene, Marco Scutaro, Akinori Iwamura, Felipe Lopez. They aren't a great bunch, but if you look at who the Twins' ran out there against the Yankees, they don't have to be great to improve the line-up. The Twins have already priced themselves into Nick Punto as an everyday player, so he can fill in at whatever position the Twins don't sign.
That still leaves third base open, which could be filled by another free-agent like Joe Crede, who played spectacular defense with pretty one-dimensional offense when he was healthy. I doubt the Twins would bring him back for a season that would most likely end in his fourth major back surgery. Perhaps they'll think the grass of Target Field will allow for better health. The ideal situation, however, would be for Danny Valencia, one of the Twins' top prospects, to take over the position. He regressed at the plate in his first year at AAA, and from what I've read he's been inconsistent defensively, but he couldn't be more inconsistent as Brendan Harris, and his bat troubles do not rival Matt Tolbert's lack of talent. It's too much to hope for Valencia to gain the trust of Gardy and his staff, but it'd save the Twins a lot of trouble at the consistently troubling hot corner.
So in an ideal world, next year's opening day line-up would look like this:
1. CF Denard Span .361
2. 2B Orlando Hudson .340
3. C Joe Mauer .384
4. 1B Justin Morneau .358
5. RF Michael Cuddyer .346
6. DH Jason Kubel .349
7. LF Delmon Young .319
8. 3B Danny Valencia >.300 (hopefully, though Twinkie Town thinks he's no better than Tolbert)
9. SS Nick Punto .294
I used career numbers for all of the hitters, which is why some of them seem low. I fully expect the big guns to outperform their career numbers. Regardless of what they actually hit, that's the making of a good line-up. There isn't an easy out until Delmon comes up (no, one hot streak does not a new hitter make, just look at how he did against the Yankees until his foul balls). You could easily substitute Gomez into center for defensive purposes, removing Delmon Young's dreadful leather from the outfield. If you believe FanGraphs' measure of total value, Gomez with his glove is better than Delmon's marginally better bat.
The Twins are unlikely to sign Hudson, as they would have to give a draft pick to the Dodgers (assuming LA offers him arbitration) if they do. They won't be high bidders, but like last year with Joe Crede, they'll try to find a bargain. There may be some good ones to find. It's nice to assume all this extra revenue from Target Field will go straight to payroll. Payroll will increase, but I bet Bill Smith will use that increase to pay Joe Mauer what he deserves, extend Michael Cuddyer, and start thinking about what happens when Denard Span hits arbitration. What will remain for anything but a cheap one-year deal? What major impact can a cheap one-year deal have? If you've actually read all of this, what do you think?
All answers pending.
Next Up: Starting Pitching.
First off, here's how the Twins most common line-up looked at the end of the season:
1. CF Denard Span .359
2. SS Orlando Cabrera* .321
3. C Joe Mauer .438
4. RF Jason Kubel .383
5. 1B Michael Cuddyer .370
6. LF Delmon Young .312
7. 3B Matt Tolbert .278
8. DH Jose Morales .334
9. 2B Nick Punto .295
Statheads are always trying to figure out one stat that can represent how good a hitter is, FanGraphs focuses on weighted On-Base Average (wOBA), which I've included in the list. In short combines all of the results of a batter's plate appearances, with different weights given to different results based on how effective they are (with a home-run carrying the most weight). It's not perfect by any means, but it gives a pretty good basis for comparison.
Looking at the Twins' line-up, you notice how top-heavy it is. Only Jose Morales comes the closest to the "Core" (Spantasm, Mighty Morphin Mauer Ranger, Cudds, and Kubes) in offensive performance, and by "close" I mean .25 less, which is a lot. That also doesn't consider Morales' late-season slump, where he seemed completely clueless at the plate. He just doesn't have enough major-league at-bats for us to know if he's this good of a hitter. The rest are incomplete hitters. You have the Nick Puntos and Matt Tolberts, who know how to draw walks but don't hit for average or power. Then you also have the Delmon Youngs and Orlando Cabreras, who hit for average, some power, and can't draw a walk to save their life. Not that you'd find complete hitters in the bottom of any Major League line-up, which is a perfect place for Nick Punto, but having Orlando Cabrera batting second, getting more at-bats than the three best hitters on the team, is a travesty.
There are two philosophies for one and two hitters. There's the old school, where speed and "bat skills" (like bunting) are the most important. Then there's the new school, where the name of the game is to work the count, take walks, and get on base to be driven in by the power hitters in the middle of the line-up. That's what makes Peter Span so fly: he gets on base well AND he can bunt AND he has good speed to take extra bases. Cabrera is fast but doesn't steal many bases, and is a contact hitter with "bat skills." He doesn't strike out a lot, but rarely walks, insisting on using his bat to get on-base, which just doesn't work. Look at it this way: Cabrera walked eleven times, and hit into nine double plays. That's not the way to follow Gerard Denardieu. Sometimes I think managers bat crappy hitters second so they can justify sac-bunting on a lead-off hit.
Criticism is all well and good, but who's going to replace all these bad hitters? Lucky for the Twins, they have a great one already signed with plenty of experience. Justin Morneau will return, most likely to the clean-up spot, allowing Gardy to remove at least one bad hitter from the line-up. The most likely candidate to lose a regular spot, however, is Jose Morales. He can't play any position besides catcher. So the worst hitters in this year's final line-up will remain in next year's. This assumes that the roster will remain the same, which it definitely will not.
Free agency has never been a fruitful venture for the Twins, and that won't change anytime soon, because the Twins choose to give big contracts to their own players rather than other teams'. No big contracts, no big players, though with the way the economy's going, there will be a few bargains out there.
A lot of decent or used-to-be-decent middle infielder's will be available. Some names that pop out to me are Orlando Hudson, Khalil Greene, Marco Scutaro, Akinori Iwamura, Felipe Lopez. They aren't a great bunch, but if you look at who the Twins' ran out there against the Yankees, they don't have to be great to improve the line-up. The Twins have already priced themselves into Nick Punto as an everyday player, so he can fill in at whatever position the Twins don't sign.
That still leaves third base open, which could be filled by another free-agent like Joe Crede, who played spectacular defense with pretty one-dimensional offense when he was healthy. I doubt the Twins would bring him back for a season that would most likely end in his fourth major back surgery. Perhaps they'll think the grass of Target Field will allow for better health. The ideal situation, however, would be for Danny Valencia, one of the Twins' top prospects, to take over the position. He regressed at the plate in his first year at AAA, and from what I've read he's been inconsistent defensively, but he couldn't be more inconsistent as Brendan Harris, and his bat troubles do not rival Matt Tolbert's lack of talent. It's too much to hope for Valencia to gain the trust of Gardy and his staff, but it'd save the Twins a lot of trouble at the consistently troubling hot corner.
So in an ideal world, next year's opening day line-up would look like this:
1. CF Denard Span .361
2. 2B Orlando Hudson .340
3. C Joe Mauer .384
4. 1B Justin Morneau .358
5. RF Michael Cuddyer .346
6. DH Jason Kubel .349
7. LF Delmon Young .319
8. 3B Danny Valencia >.300 (hopefully, though Twinkie Town thinks he's no better than Tolbert)
9. SS Nick Punto .294
I used career numbers for all of the hitters, which is why some of them seem low. I fully expect the big guns to outperform their career numbers. Regardless of what they actually hit, that's the making of a good line-up. There isn't an easy out until Delmon comes up (no, one hot streak does not a new hitter make, just look at how he did against the Yankees until his foul balls). You could easily substitute Gomez into center for defensive purposes, removing Delmon Young's dreadful leather from the outfield. If you believe FanGraphs' measure of total value, Gomez with his glove is better than Delmon's marginally better bat.
The Twins are unlikely to sign Hudson, as they would have to give a draft pick to the Dodgers (assuming LA offers him arbitration) if they do. They won't be high bidders, but like last year with Joe Crede, they'll try to find a bargain. There may be some good ones to find. It's nice to assume all this extra revenue from Target Field will go straight to payroll. Payroll will increase, but I bet Bill Smith will use that increase to pay Joe Mauer what he deserves, extend Michael Cuddyer, and start thinking about what happens when Denard Span hits arbitration. What will remain for anything but a cheap one-year deal? What major impact can a cheap one-year deal have? If you've actually read all of this, what do you think?
All answers pending.
Next Up: Starting Pitching.
Same old story
The Wild have been consistently inconsistent so far this year, and it's enough to make any fan wonder if they'll ever put together a complete hockey game.
They might as well be working in a cemetery, with all the grave-digging they've accomplished this season. Over the first and second periods this season, the Wild have been outscored 14-5, and it wasn't any different last night, as the Wild made some more fundamental errors that cost them the game before it really had a chance to develop.
In under two minutes, the Wild made a line change after a failed dump by Kyle Brodziak. If I knew more about hockey, I could assign some blame. My instinct is to point the finger towards the coaching staff for assuming Brodziak would succeed in getting the puck into the Anaheim zone. The puck instead bounced back to the Wild blue line, where the new Wild line couldn't catch up to Corey Perry, who was left to beat Backstrom one-on-one. Niklas couldn't bail the Wild out. 1-0 Anaheim.
Later in the period, Corey Perry again got positioned between the defense and the goalie by a simple give and go, and again schooled Backstrom with a nifty hesitation. By the end of the first period, it was already a two-goal game, with the Wild barely threatening with any chances of their own.
The second marked a change in momentum, as the Wild began to control the puck in the offensive zone, and created some good scoring chances... but did not score. They kept sustained pressure, but with most of their good finishers scratched with injuries (Sykora, Clutterbuck, Bouchard), they were unable to capitalize on the good looks that they got. With the mounting pressure in their zone, Anaheim committed a penalty, and it looked like the perfect opportunity for the Wild to get back in the game. However, on the power-play the Wild looked powerless, as Anaheim played keep-away. The Wild could not catch up to the puck, and had possession for maybe thirty seconds total. On their own power play. For the rest of the period, the Wild did not create many more chances, the ones they did create were wasted by lackadaisical effort.
The most pronounced of these failures to capitalize was on a good breakout by Marty Havlat, who took the puck all the way down the ice, unhindered, and made a great centering feed... that went through the crease untouched. His line-mates failed to keep up with him, much to their detriment, as it would have been an easy goal to an open net if they had only maintained their acceleration towards the Anaheim crease. A couple of minutes later, Anaheim padded their lead after another failed clear-attempt, and though an entire period remained, the Wild would not make a serious push for the rest of the game.
Eric Belanger was the star for the Wild, single-handedly scoring the Wild's only relevant goal on a takeaway, breakaway, putaway. It was a great play, but not of the kind the Wild need to start winning hockey games. The telecast had a good stat last night: The Wild had scored over 70% of their goals on the power-play. It's important to have an effective power-play, but to have that kind of ratio speaks more on the even strength ineffectiveness than good special teams play.
They still have the opportunity to improve. They played one good period tonight, just like they played one and a half good periods at San Jose. The key is to make those other periods competitive at the very least.
They might as well be working in a cemetery, with all the grave-digging they've accomplished this season. Over the first and second periods this season, the Wild have been outscored 14-5, and it wasn't any different last night, as the Wild made some more fundamental errors that cost them the game before it really had a chance to develop.
In under two minutes, the Wild made a line change after a failed dump by Kyle Brodziak. If I knew more about hockey, I could assign some blame. My instinct is to point the finger towards the coaching staff for assuming Brodziak would succeed in getting the puck into the Anaheim zone. The puck instead bounced back to the Wild blue line, where the new Wild line couldn't catch up to Corey Perry, who was left to beat Backstrom one-on-one. Niklas couldn't bail the Wild out. 1-0 Anaheim.
Later in the period, Corey Perry again got positioned between the defense and the goalie by a simple give and go, and again schooled Backstrom with a nifty hesitation. By the end of the first period, it was already a two-goal game, with the Wild barely threatening with any chances of their own.
The second marked a change in momentum, as the Wild began to control the puck in the offensive zone, and created some good scoring chances... but did not score. They kept sustained pressure, but with most of their good finishers scratched with injuries (Sykora, Clutterbuck, Bouchard), they were unable to capitalize on the good looks that they got. With the mounting pressure in their zone, Anaheim committed a penalty, and it looked like the perfect opportunity for the Wild to get back in the game. However, on the power-play the Wild looked powerless, as Anaheim played keep-away. The Wild could not catch up to the puck, and had possession for maybe thirty seconds total. On their own power play. For the rest of the period, the Wild did not create many more chances, the ones they did create were wasted by lackadaisical effort.
The most pronounced of these failures to capitalize was on a good breakout by Marty Havlat, who took the puck all the way down the ice, unhindered, and made a great centering feed... that went through the crease untouched. His line-mates failed to keep up with him, much to their detriment, as it would have been an easy goal to an open net if they had only maintained their acceleration towards the Anaheim crease. A couple of minutes later, Anaheim padded their lead after another failed clear-attempt, and though an entire period remained, the Wild would not make a serious push for the rest of the game.
Eric Belanger was the star for the Wild, single-handedly scoring the Wild's only relevant goal on a takeaway, breakaway, putaway. It was a great play, but not of the kind the Wild need to start winning hockey games. The telecast had a good stat last night: The Wild had scored over 70% of their goals on the power-play. It's important to have an effective power-play, but to have that kind of ratio speaks more on the even strength ineffectiveness than good special teams play.
They still have the opportunity to improve. They played one good period tonight, just like they played one and a half good periods at San Jose. The key is to make those other periods competitive at the very least.
Sunday, October 11, 2009
Three and done
Carl Pavano was great... until he gave up two homers in one inning. One of which looked catch-able by Delmon Young, who is slow and unathletic. A drawback to leaving Carlos Gomez on the bench, though Young would have been in left regardless. It was a sad way to give up yet another lead the half-inning immediately after taking it. Matt Guerrier is the only Twins pitcher to not give up any runs in the series, while also having the only scoreless inning proceeding a go-ahead effort by the Twins offense. That's the killer. The Twins held the lead in all three games of this series. They maintained none of them. Two of them immediately after taking them.
It was the little things that cost the Twins these last two wins. Little things like not getting the ball out of the infield with the bases loaded and none, one out. Little things like making unnecessary outs on the basepaths, and not hitting with runners in scoring position. Let's face it though, the big things were missing too. The Twins did not hit a single homerun, no thanks to Jason Kubel's nine strikeouts and .071 batting average. No, he did not have any RBIs, runs, or walks. Delmon Young did all he could to make himself an automatic out, Orlando Cabrera did nothing, and the other horses the Twins rode into the postseason stayed in the stable. One single player is not to blame, the entire team failed to get the job done. Except for Matt Guerrier, who's awesome.
Honestly, the Twins never had a chance. The Twins' four best hitters (Span, Mauer, Kubel, Cuddyer) would be lucky to bat sixth in the Yankees' line-up. The Twins' starters performed admirably (except for Duensing), but there's no comparison between them and the Yankees' staff. The Twins' have one pitcher with a 95+ fastball, the Yankees have three in their bullpen alone. Two of these games were very winnable, which is an accomplishment in and of itself. Our favorite team expended most of their energy just to get to the post-season, it was a stretch to expect anything besides this sweep, as humiliating as it is. The Twins had a good season, and I don't have any doubt that they'll put forth a season-long effort next year. Thank you Twins, you expanded the enjoyable part of the baseball season just a little bit longer, and given us hope that next year, you'll all be ready for a good playoff run. Have a good winter, and sign that extension Joe!
It was the little things that cost the Twins these last two wins. Little things like not getting the ball out of the infield with the bases loaded and none, one out. Little things like making unnecessary outs on the basepaths, and not hitting with runners in scoring position. Let's face it though, the big things were missing too. The Twins did not hit a single homerun, no thanks to Jason Kubel's nine strikeouts and .071 batting average. No, he did not have any RBIs, runs, or walks. Delmon Young did all he could to make himself an automatic out, Orlando Cabrera did nothing, and the other horses the Twins rode into the postseason stayed in the stable. One single player is not to blame, the entire team failed to get the job done. Except for Matt Guerrier, who's awesome.
Honestly, the Twins never had a chance. The Twins' four best hitters (Span, Mauer, Kubel, Cuddyer) would be lucky to bat sixth in the Yankees' line-up. The Twins' starters performed admirably (except for Duensing), but there's no comparison between them and the Yankees' staff. The Twins' have one pitcher with a 95+ fastball, the Yankees have three in their bullpen alone. Two of these games were very winnable, which is an accomplishment in and of itself. Our favorite team expended most of their energy just to get to the post-season, it was a stretch to expect anything besides this sweep, as humiliating as it is. The Twins had a good season, and I don't have any doubt that they'll put forth a season-long effort next year. Thank you Twins, you expanded the enjoyable part of the baseball season just a little bit longer, and given us hope that next year, you'll all be ready for a good playoff run. Have a good winter, and sign that extension Joe!
Complete victory?
That was one boring football game, for really only one reason: The Vikes completely stomped them. As they should have.
The offense was humming. AD got his two touchdowns on only fifteen carries, gaining 69 yards on the ground (4.6 yds/carry, very good but not dominant. Brett Favre got his as well, throwing for a couple hundred yards, keeping drives moving while increasing his lead on the all-time lists: touchdowns and interceptions. The touchdown was about as easy as you can get. Shiancoe got past the coverage, and there was not a safety in sight. The interception was about as bad as you could get. Brett leaked out of the pocket, under pressure, and Brett Favre does not throw balls away. He instead throws them into quadruple coverage, without a passing lane, unless you count the space between James Laurinaitis' hands as a "lane." The first real bad interception of the year for his man Brett, but he seemed to learn from it, not by throwing it away, but avoiding throws into double-plus coverage.
Brett put the defense in a bind with his hubris, but the D was up to the task. The Rams got a field goal, but they started in long field goal range anyway. The Rams put together several long drives against the Vikings, gaining the red zone four times, and gaining Vikings territory at least twice more. Yet all times except one, the Rams gave the Vikings the ball back with unforced fumbles, interceptions, or turnovers on downs. It was a similar pattern to last week's Monday Night Football game, where the opposing offense would gain plenty of yards, but not cash in on what should have been scoring drives by giving the ball away. It's an effective way to keep points off the board, but I don't believe that those big plays will keep happening for the Vikings. They're going to have to start forcing more 3-and-outs, and avoiding the big pass plays that have come mostly on screens and to tight ends. The offense is really clicking right now, along with the big play ability of the defense. The defense just needs to be consistent and explosive. The offense won't move the ball so easily every game, and the defense won't always negate the opponent's chances right before they score.
All in all, there isn't much room for complaint, as the Vikings easily took care of a terrible opponent. For some reason, it still doesn't feel like the Vikes have been tested yet. San Fran just got blown out by Atlanta, and Green Bay still threw for 380+ yards. Until the Vikings D completely dominates and shuts down a decent opponent, I won't be satisfied, and neither should they. They have the personnel to do it, now they just need to execute and start covering opposing tight ends and receivers more consistently. Baltimore will be a good test, and Todd Heap better not have a good game.
The offense was humming. AD got his two touchdowns on only fifteen carries, gaining 69 yards on the ground (4.6 yds/carry, very good but not dominant. Brett Favre got his as well, throwing for a couple hundred yards, keeping drives moving while increasing his lead on the all-time lists: touchdowns and interceptions. The touchdown was about as easy as you can get. Shiancoe got past the coverage, and there was not a safety in sight. The interception was about as bad as you could get. Brett leaked out of the pocket, under pressure, and Brett Favre does not throw balls away. He instead throws them into quadruple coverage, without a passing lane, unless you count the space between James Laurinaitis' hands as a "lane." The first real bad interception of the year for his man Brett, but he seemed to learn from it, not by throwing it away, but avoiding throws into double-plus coverage.
Brett put the defense in a bind with his hubris, but the D was up to the task. The Rams got a field goal, but they started in long field goal range anyway. The Rams put together several long drives against the Vikings, gaining the red zone four times, and gaining Vikings territory at least twice more. Yet all times except one, the Rams gave the Vikings the ball back with unforced fumbles, interceptions, or turnovers on downs. It was a similar pattern to last week's Monday Night Football game, where the opposing offense would gain plenty of yards, but not cash in on what should have been scoring drives by giving the ball away. It's an effective way to keep points off the board, but I don't believe that those big plays will keep happening for the Vikings. They're going to have to start forcing more 3-and-outs, and avoiding the big pass plays that have come mostly on screens and to tight ends. The offense is really clicking right now, along with the big play ability of the defense. The defense just needs to be consistent and explosive. The offense won't move the ball so easily every game, and the defense won't always negate the opponent's chances right before they score.
All in all, there isn't much room for complaint, as the Vikings easily took care of a terrible opponent. For some reason, it still doesn't feel like the Vikes have been tested yet. San Fran just got blown out by Atlanta, and Green Bay still threw for 380+ yards. Until the Vikings D completely dominates and shuts down a decent opponent, I won't be satisfied, and neither should they. They have the personnel to do it, now they just need to execute and start covering opposing tight ends and receivers more consistently. Baltimore will be a good test, and Todd Heap better not have a good game.
Saturday, October 10, 2009
Inverse
So I guess the Wild got to show us what happens when they score the first goal. They started the game very well, putting a lot of pressure on the Sharks D. They created a lot of chances while remaining responsible on their end. When a team maintains possession inside the opponent's zone, you know that they're doing well. Shane Hnidy finally made the Sharks pay with a wicked shot that Andrew Brunette deflected to the attic. It's a play that would NOT have happened last year, as defensemen were not allowed to advance into the offensive zone and take shots under Jacques Lemaire. Something that's remained from the old regime is not the amount of scoring chances, but the Wild's inability to, you know, score on those opportunities. Whether it's by a missed shot, one off the post, a "miraculous save" (read: an inaccurate or weak shot), or too much hesitation before shooting. I noticed instances of all of these in tonight's game. That's how the Wild rank 10th in the NHL in shots on goal average, but only 20th in goals scored average.
Plenty of opportunities, with two goals to show for it, but that still meant a two goal lead halfway through the game. The Wild were aggressive to the puck, keeping their sticks active to disrupt the Sharks' passes and shots. The Sharks seemed completely out of rhythm, and none of their possessions lasted very long. Niklas Backstrom needed only thirteen saves for the first half shutout. If only the game had ended there.
The Sharks are one of the most dangerous teams in the NHL offensively, and they exploded for three in seven and a half minutes of play. The first two were just really good plays by the Sharks: quick one timers that left no chance for Backstrom to save it. The go-ahead goal though, was something else. It was another example of what happens when you leave the opponent unchecked around the goaltender. The Wild defenders both moved with a Shark moving in to the circle, leaving another Shark all by himself with poor Niklas, who had no chance on Dany Heatley's shot, unable to see past the mountain of teal in front of him. The fourth San Jose goal was just plain bad hockey, as Mikko Koivu and Greg Zanon could not decide who should cover Patrick Marleau (one of San Jose's best players). Marleau waltzed up to Backstrom's face before sliding the puck through the five-hole for the comfortable two goal lead the Wild had enjoyed just ten minutes before. Marleau's goal is an extreme example of the defensive lapses the Wild managed to overcome for half the game, but an adjusting team is not going to pull off a road win against a very good team with the kinds of mistakes that adjusting teams make.
All in all though, the Wild put on an impressive offensive performance, minus the most important stat: goals. If they keep up the kind of offensive presence they had against San Jose, the goals will come. Hopefully sooner rather than later, because you never know when they're going to leave the goalie out to dry... again.
Plenty of opportunities, with two goals to show for it, but that still meant a two goal lead halfway through the game. The Wild were aggressive to the puck, keeping their sticks active to disrupt the Sharks' passes and shots. The Sharks seemed completely out of rhythm, and none of their possessions lasted very long. Niklas Backstrom needed only thirteen saves for the first half shutout. If only the game had ended there.
The Sharks are one of the most dangerous teams in the NHL offensively, and they exploded for three in seven and a half minutes of play. The first two were just really good plays by the Sharks: quick one timers that left no chance for Backstrom to save it. The go-ahead goal though, was something else. It was another example of what happens when you leave the opponent unchecked around the goaltender. The Wild defenders both moved with a Shark moving in to the circle, leaving another Shark all by himself with poor Niklas, who had no chance on Dany Heatley's shot, unable to see past the mountain of teal in front of him. The fourth San Jose goal was just plain bad hockey, as Mikko Koivu and Greg Zanon could not decide who should cover Patrick Marleau (one of San Jose's best players). Marleau waltzed up to Backstrom's face before sliding the puck through the five-hole for the comfortable two goal lead the Wild had enjoyed just ten minutes before. Marleau's goal is an extreme example of the defensive lapses the Wild managed to overcome for half the game, but an adjusting team is not going to pull off a road win against a very good team with the kinds of mistakes that adjusting teams make.
All in all though, the Wild put on an impressive offensive performance, minus the most important stat: goals. If they keep up the kind of offensive presence they had against San Jose, the goals will come. Hopefully sooner rather than later, because you never know when they're going to leave the goalie out to dry... again.
Friday, October 9, 2009
Big-name players need to be big-game players
And Joe Nathan is the second biggest name the Twins have. You know what his post-season ERA is? 7.50. Six walks and eight strikeouts. That's before tonight's disaster. Until he shows he can get good hitters out in close games, he's not a good pitcher. He gave up the lead-off single to Tex-message-break-up (he looks like he would, doesn't he?), and Joe let it get to him. Instead of throwing a first pitch strike to A-Roid, he nibbled on the corners like a coward. He decided on a two-strike approach before the at-bat began, and then he decides to challenge the guy, in a hitters count, with a cookie so delicious Franciso Liriano immediately asked for the recipe. A-Hole did not miss, and then the "real" Nathan decided to show up to preserve the tie.
If it was possible to get worse, Nathan did in the next inning. He showed the type of nerves that closers typically feed on, with a pick-off throw that wouldn't have been close even if it had not sailed into the outfield to advance the runner (who, by the way, had very easily stolen second not too long before). No choice then but to walk Derek Cheater. Runners at the corners, one out, and Gardy pulls Joe Nathan for Jose Mijares to face the lefty hitter, Johnny Daemon. Jesus turned Satan sent the ball for what looked like the winning hit, but Orlando Cabrera was playing in, as well as towards second to make a double play. He got a different one than he was playing for, as the Yankee runner on third didn't wait for the ball to drop, and was easily picked off after O-Cab caught the line drive. Nathan got bailed out, just like he did in Tuesday's ninth inning, but by a different pitcher.
Joe Mauer led off immediately after with a double, and consecutive hits from Kubel and Cuddyer sent him home with what should have been the winning run. Delmon Young jumped on the first pitch, hitting it straight to Texas omelette, who also threw out Joe Mauer for the force at home on Go-Go-Out's unforgivably weak grounder. "Wait, Mauer already scored!" you say. I guess I left out the part where left field umpire Phil Cuzzi called Joe's double a foul ball. No, his view was not obstructed. No, he was standing twenty feet away from the ball as it landed fair after being touched by the left fielder in fair territory. Yes the umpire had a New York hair cut, was born in New Jersey, and bore a strong resemblance to the one-armed murderer from The Fugitive. Maybe the Twins would have blown a lead-off double opportunity instead of the bases-loaded-no-out opportunity instead, but I doubt it. The game should have at worst been tied on the shortest home-run ever, but Cuzzi killed the Twins' opportunity, and framed Young and Gomez.
It never should have come to the second paragraph though. Joe Nathan now has more blown saves than saves in the post-season. Granted the sample size is small, but the Twins are never going to be a perennial playoff team like the Yankees. It was all they could do to make it this year. Nathan needs to cash in on the opportunities he's given. If he doesn't, what's the point of keeping him around? Will he magically stop blowing saves if the Twins had a more complete team? No. So I'm going to say something I hope I don't regret: trade Joe Nathan. Even with tonight's game, his value is as high as it will ever be. Plenty of would-be contenders need closers (hello Philadelphia Phillies, St. Louis Cardinals, Tampa Bay Rays, Chicago Cubs, Florida Marlins). The Twins could get at least one really good hitting or pitching prospect from these clubs for Nathan. The key is to wait until after you sign Joe Mauer, because he'll never stay if Nathan is traded beforehand.
Blerg, I can't believe I just wrote that, but I'm sticking to it. Maybe Nathan will get another opportunity, but with the way this series has gone, and with Carl Pavano owing the Yankees for four years of paid vacation, there probably won't be another save situation in this series. My heart is broken, not by the Yankees, but by Nathan's lip roll. Maybe that's what he choked on.
If it was possible to get worse, Nathan did in the next inning. He showed the type of nerves that closers typically feed on, with a pick-off throw that wouldn't have been close even if it had not sailed into the outfield to advance the runner (who, by the way, had very easily stolen second not too long before). No choice then but to walk Derek Cheater. Runners at the corners, one out, and Gardy pulls Joe Nathan for Jose Mijares to face the lefty hitter, Johnny Daemon. Jesus turned Satan sent the ball for what looked like the winning hit, but Orlando Cabrera was playing in, as well as towards second to make a double play. He got a different one than he was playing for, as the Yankee runner on third didn't wait for the ball to drop, and was easily picked off after O-Cab caught the line drive. Nathan got bailed out, just like he did in Tuesday's ninth inning, but by a different pitcher.
Joe Mauer led off immediately after with a double, and consecutive hits from Kubel and Cuddyer sent him home with what should have been the winning run. Delmon Young jumped on the first pitch, hitting it straight to Texas omelette, who also threw out Joe Mauer for the force at home on Go-Go-Out's unforgivably weak grounder. "Wait, Mauer already scored!" you say. I guess I left out the part where left field umpire Phil Cuzzi called Joe's double a foul ball. No, his view was not obstructed. No, he was standing twenty feet away from the ball as it landed fair after being touched by the left fielder in fair territory. Yes the umpire had a New York hair cut, was born in New Jersey, and bore a strong resemblance to the one-armed murderer from The Fugitive. Maybe the Twins would have blown a lead-off double opportunity instead of the bases-loaded-no-out opportunity instead, but I doubt it. The game should have at worst been tied on the shortest home-run ever, but Cuzzi killed the Twins' opportunity, and framed Young and Gomez.
It never should have come to the second paragraph though. Joe Nathan now has more blown saves than saves in the post-season. Granted the sample size is small, but the Twins are never going to be a perennial playoff team like the Yankees. It was all they could do to make it this year. Nathan needs to cash in on the opportunities he's given. If he doesn't, what's the point of keeping him around? Will he magically stop blowing saves if the Twins had a more complete team? No. So I'm going to say something I hope I don't regret: trade Joe Nathan. Even with tonight's game, his value is as high as it will ever be. Plenty of would-be contenders need closers (hello Philadelphia Phillies, St. Louis Cardinals, Tampa Bay Rays, Chicago Cubs, Florida Marlins). The Twins could get at least one really good hitting or pitching prospect from these clubs for Nathan. The key is to wait until after you sign Joe Mauer, because he'll never stay if Nathan is traded beforehand.
Blerg, I can't believe I just wrote that, but I'm sticking to it. Maybe Nathan will get another opportunity, but with the way this series has gone, and with Carl Pavano owing the Yankees for four years of paid vacation, there probably won't be another save situation in this series. My heart is broken, not by the Yankees, but by Nathan's lip roll. Maybe that's what he choked on.
Thursday, October 8, 2009
Ugh
The Wild weren't always a sieve like this. Last year they nearly led the NHL in goals against. Yet with the adjustments to the new system of Todd Richards, the defense has been... lacking. Niklas Backstrom and Josh Harding are both good goaltenders. Both have career save percentages over ninety-percent, much better than the eighty five and seventy three (!) marks they've showed over the last two games. Sometimes numbers don't accurately reflect what actually happens during a game. This is a case of that. Save percentage is limited in that it doesn't take into account the quality of the chances those goals were scored on. If there's four-on-one (actually happened against the Wild on Tuesday), the goalie will be caught out of position trying to keep track of the different passes, any of which could result in an immediate shot. A goal scored in that situation affects save percentage just as much as a dribbling puck that slips through the pads.
That said, the Wild have shown resilience in coming back from the large deficits they're giving themselves. They managed to trim the deficit to just one goal, before their D failed them yet again, giving up an easy goal from Jarrot Stoll's centering pass to the wide-open Teddy Purcell, who put it home before Harding could make it to the far post. Harding did not have a chance, as Nick Schultz was unable to recover to the Wild's zone after getting too aggressive for the equalizer. That's the result of over extending in order to come back and win a game that should have been out of reach. The two goals the Wild gave up in the first three minutes and eighteen seconds? Those are the ones that can be avoided, as both involved deflections from King players that were unchecked in the crease (the area in which Josh Harding tries to prevent goals). This allows those King players to deflect shots, and it allows those players to get in Harding's way. Six foot dudes are hard to see through. The Wild defenders' job is to push those dudes out of the crease. They didn't. Hence, early deficit.
I'm interested to see how the Wild do when they score first, which in Jacques Lemaire's defense first system was a very important thing. This team is different, while still being very strong on special teams (both when they have a power play and when they're short-handed). It's the five-on-five play that's remained their weakness, just in a different way than last year. Last year the defenders and even the center would stay back to a fault, often giving up chances to score goals. This year the Wild have been able to create scoring opportunities... for both themselves and the opponent. Yet they're still learning, and they're going to click in a way that can generate chances for themselves while minimizing the ones they surrender. Don't give up on them yet.
That said, the Wild have shown resilience in coming back from the large deficits they're giving themselves. They managed to trim the deficit to just one goal, before their D failed them yet again, giving up an easy goal from Jarrot Stoll's centering pass to the wide-open Teddy Purcell, who put it home before Harding could make it to the far post. Harding did not have a chance, as Nick Schultz was unable to recover to the Wild's zone after getting too aggressive for the equalizer. That's the result of over extending in order to come back and win a game that should have been out of reach. The two goals the Wild gave up in the first three minutes and eighteen seconds? Those are the ones that can be avoided, as both involved deflections from King players that were unchecked in the crease (the area in which Josh Harding tries to prevent goals). This allows those King players to deflect shots, and it allows those players to get in Harding's way. Six foot dudes are hard to see through. The Wild defenders' job is to push those dudes out of the crease. They didn't. Hence, early deficit.
I'm interested to see how the Wild do when they score first, which in Jacques Lemaire's defense first system was a very important thing. This team is different, while still being very strong on special teams (both when they have a power play and when they're short-handed). It's the five-on-five play that's remained their weakness, just in a different way than last year. Last year the defenders and even the center would stay back to a fault, often giving up chances to score goals. This year the Wild have been able to create scoring opportunities... for both themselves and the opponent. Yet they're still learning, and they're going to click in a way that can generate chances for themselves while minimizing the ones they surrender. Don't give up on them yet.
Wednesday, October 7, 2009
Well what did you expect?
Duensing continued the slump, though his defense let him down in spots. Does anyone think Orlando Cabrera is a good defender? I hope Bill Smith doesn't, because bringing him back is the wrong move. Yes I'm already thinking about next season.
All the fancy shmancy baseball analysts tell us power pitching plays well in the post-season, and tonight was a good example of that. Duensing continued his slump (maybe his success wasn't really that meaningful), with his pitch-to-contact approach not working. When you can't get strikeouts with men on base, you're going to allow runners to score, via home-runs or not. Professional line-ups will string hits together, just like the Twins did in the third. Dominant pitchers are able to pitch around lead-off doubles by striking out great hitters like Joe Mauer. The Twins don't have a dominant pitcher, in the majors or in the minors. Until they obtain one through whatever means, they won't have a good shot of winning playoff games. Too many years of using high picks on Duensings instead of Lincecums have sapped the major league rotation of a true ace like Sabathia. Picks like Kyle Gibson may be the start of a new philosophy, but it doesn't help the Twins right now.
I don't want to talk about the actual game, because there were no surprises. The Yankees are just plain better than the Twins. The only shot the Twins have will be to win Friday with Nick Blackburn and the bullpen and position players fully rested from last night's marathon. The Twins got to their hotel at 4am last night, so that's the players' excuse. What's Gardy's for pitching to A-Rod with first base open? I don't like Brendan Harris or the recently slumping Jose Morales playing DH either. What Gomez gives up with his smelly bat he makes up for with his superb glove, which would also put Span in right, who would have snagged A-Rod's single for an out. Kubel's a DH, let him play his natural position. Kubel only became a force when he got regular playing time. The same with Delmon Young (though maybe that was the same as Duensing's mirage). Maybe Gomez could actually get some confidence if he, you know, played?
It's such a let-down after last night's magic, but I'm not giving up, and I'm sure the Twins aren't either.
All the fancy shmancy baseball analysts tell us power pitching plays well in the post-season, and tonight was a good example of that. Duensing continued his slump (maybe his success wasn't really that meaningful), with his pitch-to-contact approach not working. When you can't get strikeouts with men on base, you're going to allow runners to score, via home-runs or not. Professional line-ups will string hits together, just like the Twins did in the third. Dominant pitchers are able to pitch around lead-off doubles by striking out great hitters like Joe Mauer. The Twins don't have a dominant pitcher, in the majors or in the minors. Until they obtain one through whatever means, they won't have a good shot of winning playoff games. Too many years of using high picks on Duensings instead of Lincecums have sapped the major league rotation of a true ace like Sabathia. Picks like Kyle Gibson may be the start of a new philosophy, but it doesn't help the Twins right now.
I don't want to talk about the actual game, because there were no surprises. The Yankees are just plain better than the Twins. The only shot the Twins have will be to win Friday with Nick Blackburn and the bullpen and position players fully rested from last night's marathon. The Twins got to their hotel at 4am last night, so that's the players' excuse. What's Gardy's for pitching to A-Rod with first base open? I don't like Brendan Harris or the recently slumping Jose Morales playing DH either. What Gomez gives up with his smelly bat he makes up for with his superb glove, which would also put Span in right, who would have snagged A-Rod's single for an out. Kubel's a DH, let him play his natural position. Kubel only became a force when he got regular playing time. The same with Delmon Young (though maybe that was the same as Duensing's mirage). Maybe Gomez could actually get some confidence if he, you know, played?
It's such a let-down after last night's magic, but I'm not giving up, and I'm sure the Twins aren't either.
Tuesday, October 6, 2009
The rainy day has lifted
On the way back from the Twins game, I had completely forgotten that the Wild played their home opener tonight. So I turned on the radio, and the second period was just starting. Awesome, even more Minesota goodness. That south of the (Canadian) border called Chipotle beckoned though, so the Wild would have to wait. When I turned the radio back on, I heard all about Koivu's goal to make it 3-0. No Barracuda, don't feel good, because it wasn't Mikko's, the Wild's number one center. It was Saku, his brother who spurned the Wild for Anaheim. I immediately turned the radio off. And didn't bother watching the rest of the game (my mom claimed the good tv to watch Dancing with the Stars, you can't expect me to watch hockey in not as good HD). Bad decision.
Unable to get excited about the announcement of the Twins' victory and subsequent cheering, the Wild players did what any other hockey players do for inspiration: fisticuffs. All 6' 8" of John Scott upper-cutted some guy to the ice, and it was on like a cattle prod. The Wild scored three unanswered goals to tie the game. The new and improved Marion Gaborik (aka Marty Havlat) had the primary assist on all of these scores. The game went into sudden death extra innings I mean overtime, and the Wild pulled it out with Andrew "Holy crap he played on a torn ACL last year" Brunette's winner. Did you read that? He played with a torn ACL. That's awesomely tough. Wanna give hockey a try?
Unable to get excited about the announcement of the Twins' victory and subsequent cheering, the Wild players did what any other hockey players do for inspiration: fisticuffs. All 6' 8" of John Scott upper-cutted some guy to the ice, and it was on like a cattle prod. The Wild scored three unanswered goals to tie the game. The new and improved Marion Gaborik (aka Marty Havlat) had the primary assist on all of these scores. The game went into sudden death extra innings I mean overtime, and the Wild pulled it out with Andrew "Holy crap he played on a torn ACL last year" Brunette's winner. Did you read that? He played with a torn ACL. That's awesomely tough. Wanna give hockey a try?
An unlikely combination
What a game. I'll refrain from yelling, as my voice has suffered enough tonight, but WHAT A GAME.
You could hear a pin drop when Drank His Average silenced the chants of "Al-co-ho-lic! Clap clap clapclapclap" with his home run. He most likely imagined the ball as his wife's face. No I'm not apologizing. I liked that chant. Baker didn't pitch that badly though. A quality start, with only a double and some Domestic Abuse in one inning as his mistakes. He settled down, and gave the Twins a great effort.
There was a strange dichotomy between Gardy and Leyland's bullpen strategy. Jimmy stretch-Armstronged each of his relief pitchers, especially Fernando Rodney, who pitched 3+ innings while blowing the save and losing the game. Good for Jim, though the rest of his bullpen's incompetence left him little choice. The Twins meanwhile, cycled through their entire bullpen save Francisco Liriano (Jeff Manship was warming up in the top of the 12th). The reasonable workload for Rauch, Mahay, and (suddenly gulp) Mijares probably means we'll see them tomorrow, where they'll be needed badly (Brian "Slumping" Duensing is slated to start). I hope Gardy took the right approach.
The voice is shot, as are the emotions. The sober Cabrera's home run could not be believed. There's just no way he took the lead like that. There's no way an aging, swing happy, stone-handed shortstop hit the biggest home run of the season. There's no way an aging, overpaid, Hugo Chavez supporter tied it immediately from what I assume was another fresh home-baked cookie by Matt Guerrier. I guess we can call it even, though Guerrier's recent performances, few as they were, are alarming.
Back and forth, forth and back, the Twins and Tigers trade wasted threats after the eighth. They even trade successful threats as pretty likable Brandon Inge doubles home a man from first, before Cuddly Jesus hits a huge lead-off triple, running home on a similarly huge single by Nick Punto. I mean Matt Tolbert. Then Nick Punto's sac-line-drive is not enough for Alexi "Head in The Game" Casilla's late tag to score. Scoreless eleventh, flat-line. Kepp Kepp throw sinker, Tigers catch up to sinker, except Gerald Laird, who miss scouting report on Kepp Kepp. Gomez has the audacity to hit a leadoff single while I'm in the rest room. Cuddyer advances him on what I swear is a foul ball. Delmon Young is inexplicably, intentionally induced into first base. Casilla provides explanation, but comes up with ANOTHER huge hit, and the crowd can finally celebrate.
I hope I didn't catch swing flu from all of the strangers' high fives. Strange women's elation tempted me to seize them for a makeout session. I'm sure I could have gotten away with it. Everyone was so happy. I'm so happy. Bring on a sweep from the Yanks, I don't care. That experience at the Metrodome tonight was something we can all cherish forever. Except for Tigers fans, who can go to hell.
You could hear a pin drop when Drank His Average silenced the chants of "Al-co-ho-lic! Clap clap clapclapclap" with his home run. He most likely imagined the ball as his wife's face. No I'm not apologizing. I liked that chant. Baker didn't pitch that badly though. A quality start, with only a double and some Domestic Abuse in one inning as his mistakes. He settled down, and gave the Twins a great effort.
There was a strange dichotomy between Gardy and Leyland's bullpen strategy. Jimmy stretch-Armstronged each of his relief pitchers, especially Fernando Rodney, who pitched 3+ innings while blowing the save and losing the game. Good for Jim, though the rest of his bullpen's incompetence left him little choice. The Twins meanwhile, cycled through their entire bullpen save Francisco Liriano (Jeff Manship was warming up in the top of the 12th). The reasonable workload for Rauch, Mahay, and (suddenly gulp) Mijares probably means we'll see them tomorrow, where they'll be needed badly (Brian "Slumping" Duensing is slated to start). I hope Gardy took the right approach.
The voice is shot, as are the emotions. The sober Cabrera's home run could not be believed. There's just no way he took the lead like that. There's no way an aging, swing happy, stone-handed shortstop hit the biggest home run of the season. There's no way an aging, overpaid, Hugo Chavez supporter tied it immediately from what I assume was another fresh home-baked cookie by Matt Guerrier. I guess we can call it even, though Guerrier's recent performances, few as they were, are alarming.
Back and forth, forth and back, the Twins and Tigers trade wasted threats after the eighth. They even trade successful threats as pretty likable Brandon Inge doubles home a man from first, before Cuddly Jesus hits a huge lead-off triple, running home on a similarly huge single by Nick Punto. I mean Matt Tolbert. Then Nick Punto's sac-line-drive is not enough for Alexi "Head in The Game" Casilla's late tag to score. Scoreless eleventh, flat-line. Kepp Kepp throw sinker, Tigers catch up to sinker, except Gerald Laird, who miss scouting report on Kepp Kepp. Gomez has the audacity to hit a leadoff single while I'm in the rest room. Cuddyer advances him on what I swear is a foul ball. Delmon Young is inexplicably, intentionally induced into first base. Casilla provides explanation, but comes up with ANOTHER huge hit, and the crowd can finally celebrate.
I hope I didn't catch swing flu from all of the strangers' high fives. Strange women's elation tempted me to seize them for a makeout session. I'm sure I could have gotten away with it. Everyone was so happy. I'm so happy. Bring on a sweep from the Yanks, I don't care. That experience at the Metrodome tonight was something we can all cherish forever. Except for Tigers fans, who can go to hell.
Monday, October 5, 2009
That was... disappointing?
I really wanted to see Adrian run all over the Packers. That's what this football team is, or should I say was? The last two weeks we've seen AD locked in a box. He had no room up the middle. He couldn't gain the edge much either. I'm fine with Brett Favre being on the team. He's been a god-send when Peterson can't get going, but with all of Favre's success winning games with his arm, he's gaining more and more hype. He seems a natural leader, but he's still on his last legs. He's not a long-term solution, but the past two games have made the Vikings "his" team. If anyone wants that for these Vikings, I'd have to question their sanity.
The defense played fantastic tonight in big ways, both good and bad. They sacked Aaron Rodgers EIGHT times, they forced him into an interception and a fumble, both killing what looked like scoring drives. Yet Rodgers still had a 110.6 rating, throwing for 384 yards of offense. Jermichael Finley (a tight end, no wonder) could not or would not be tackled or covered by the Vikes D. Pack (ha!) on 82 yards of rushing (those draws really did a number), and you have a pretty horrendous day in terms of yard prevention. Of course, point prevention is what matters, so the turnovers, sacks, and clutch fourth and goal stop add up to a good defensive performance.
Aaron Rodgers' performance is the kind that you can really get excited about, if you're a Packer fan at least. He's young, and he shook off EIGHT SACKS and two early turnovers to keep the game close. He stayed collected, and his throws were accurate. And he's young. He's going to ensure the Packers offensive success a year for every time he was sacked tonight. Assuming the Packers ever build a good team around him. Maybe they'll do a trade for their former legend?
It's weird how negative one can be on such a great win, but the Vikes did almost everything they could to keep the game close, from their inability to get push from their offensive line, to their flashy but unproductive wildcat passing play and completely unnecessary bomb to Berrian, both of which stopped the clock. Luckily the Vikings have a power-forward like Sidney Rice to reach up to heaven and snatch any extra possessions and all hope from the Packers.
I'm worried about the Vikings D and running game, the supposed strengths of this team. Big plays are great, but they can't be consistently generated by even the best defenses. Consistently minimizing the offense's big plays and first downs are how defenses win championships. You don't face the Packers' offensive line every week, and Brett Favre won't throw three TDs every week. The defense and running game need to step it up.
The defense played fantastic tonight in big ways, both good and bad. They sacked Aaron Rodgers EIGHT times, they forced him into an interception and a fumble, both killing what looked like scoring drives. Yet Rodgers still had a 110.6 rating, throwing for 384 yards of offense. Jermichael Finley (a tight end, no wonder) could not or would not be tackled or covered by the Vikes D. Pack (ha!) on 82 yards of rushing (those draws really did a number), and you have a pretty horrendous day in terms of yard prevention. Of course, point prevention is what matters, so the turnovers, sacks, and clutch fourth and goal stop add up to a good defensive performance.
Aaron Rodgers' performance is the kind that you can really get excited about, if you're a Packer fan at least. He's young, and he shook off EIGHT SACKS and two early turnovers to keep the game close. He stayed collected, and his throws were accurate. And he's young. He's going to ensure the Packers offensive success a year for every time he was sacked tonight. Assuming the Packers ever build a good team around him. Maybe they'll do a trade for their former legend?
It's weird how negative one can be on such a great win, but the Vikes did almost everything they could to keep the game close, from their inability to get push from their offensive line, to their flashy but unproductive wildcat passing play and completely unnecessary bomb to Berrian, both of which stopped the clock. Luckily the Vikings have a power-forward like Sidney Rice to reach up to heaven and snatch any extra possessions and all hope from the Packers.
I'm worried about the Vikings D and running game, the supposed strengths of this team. Big plays are great, but they can't be consistently generated by even the best defenses. Consistently minimizing the offense's big plays and first downs are how defenses win championships. You don't face the Packers' offensive line every week, and Brett Favre won't throw three TDs every week. The defense and running game need to step it up.
Sunday, October 4, 2009
Two years in a row
The White Sox did all they could for the Twins, even a failed rally against Verlander in the eighth after being shut-out until that moment. Leyland didn't make the same mistake again, and put in the closer to finish things off.
The Twins did what they had to do, though yet again a Twins starter didn't make it out of the sixth inning. The bullpen was flawless though, and the Twins cruised to an easy victory, with two Twins hitting multiple homeruns. Cuddyer continued his heroics, but it was Delmon Young who hit two solo shots, and Jason Kubel with two three-run taters, providing the winning runs before the fourth inning. Everything after that was just gravy, and making sure Joe Nathan got two days off before the big game on Tuesday.
It's incredible that the Twins will play 163 games two years in a row. This time though, a coin flip didn't screw the Twins out of the home field advantage they deserve. They clobbered the Tigers in the season series, and they're going to clobber them again in a couple days.
The Twins did what they had to do, though yet again a Twins starter didn't make it out of the sixth inning. The bullpen was flawless though, and the Twins cruised to an easy victory, with two Twins hitting multiple homeruns. Cuddyer continued his heroics, but it was Delmon Young who hit two solo shots, and Jason Kubel with two three-run taters, providing the winning runs before the fourth inning. Everything after that was just gravy, and making sure Joe Nathan got two days off before the big game on Tuesday.
It's incredible that the Twins will play 163 games two years in a row. This time though, a coin flip didn't screw the Twins out of the home field advantage they deserve. They clobbered the Tigers in the season series, and they're going to clobber them again in a couple days.
Saturday, October 3, 2009
Minnesota has a hockey team?
They started their season tonight? You didn't watch? You didn't know Channel 45 broadcast anything besides sit-com re-runs? Shame on you. Shame on me, too, for keeping it a secret.
I don't know why I'm so intimidated by hockey, but I remain so. It's different than the other sports, not quite as mainstream. It's like Indie music, except manly. If you like it and know it and love it, then you probably think you're a better person for it. Because you are. Wait. Scratch all that. I just remembered my childhood, which contains quite the embarrassment involving hockey. Consider this blog my atonement.
The Wild (as well as the Timberwolves) are unknowns this season, with new management, new coaches, and a lot of new players. Not Carl Pavano new. Not Brett Favre new. More like Jared Allen new. It's as good a time as any to start following the forgotten sports in the Twin Cities, though the Twins just made it a good deal more difficult. Check out Star Tribune, the web version, especially whatever Michael Russo writes, to indoctrinate yourself. I hope that bankruptcy thing doesn't get in the way of their great MN sports coverage. Not that you should stop reading this coverage either though :).
Ok, so maybe I've tricked you, as both the Wild and the Wolves aren't going to be very good this year. The Wild have a new system for the first time in their (short) history, and it showed in tonight's game. In both good and bad ways. The good was a back and forth, fast-paced hockey game. The bad was Nicklas Backstrom standing on his head just to keep the deficit at one. The bad was playing Pierre-Marc Bouchard at center, where he can't win a face-off to save his life and will continue to get pushed around by players bigger than him (most everyone). Things will get better though, and if you stick with it, someday you'll understand those last three sentences. Give it a shot, give the Wild a shot, and at least read the Wolves' boxscores. Poor pups.
I don't know why I'm so intimidated by hockey, but I remain so. It's different than the other sports, not quite as mainstream. It's like Indie music, except manly. If you like it and know it and love it, then you probably think you're a better person for it. Because you are. Wait. Scratch all that. I just remembered my childhood, which contains quite the embarrassment involving hockey. Consider this blog my atonement.
The Wild (as well as the Timberwolves) are unknowns this season, with new management, new coaches, and a lot of new players. Not Carl Pavano new. Not Brett Favre new. More like Jared Allen new. It's as good a time as any to start following the forgotten sports in the Twin Cities, though the Twins just made it a good deal more difficult. Check out Star Tribune, the web version, especially whatever Michael Russo writes, to indoctrinate yourself. I hope that bankruptcy thing doesn't get in the way of their great MN sports coverage. Not that you should stop reading this coverage either though :).
Ok, so maybe I've tricked you, as both the Wild and the Wolves aren't going to be very good this year. The Wild have a new system for the first time in their (short) history, and it showed in tonight's game. In both good and bad ways. The good was a back and forth, fast-paced hockey game. The bad was Nicklas Backstrom standing on his head just to keep the deficit at one. The bad was playing Pierre-Marc Bouchard at center, where he can't win a face-off to save his life and will continue to get pushed around by players bigger than him (most everyone). Things will get better though, and if you stick with it, someday you'll understand those last three sentences. Give it a shot, give the Wild a shot, and at least read the Wolves' boxscores. Poor pups.
Twins still COMPLETELY IN IT
The Twins have played so well the past few weeks, the lead-off double in the eighth didn't dampen my spirits. The (too) early hook from Gardenhire, Mijares' pitiful performance and Jon Rauch's inability to clean up the mess left them tied... but I still felt good about their chances. The Royals bullpen is terrible, and their manager is worse, as Santa Claus came down the Metrodome's chimney, and gave Michael Cuddyer a left-handed pitcher to hit, and hit hard. He did not miss his chance, and he gave back the lead that the Twins never should have lost. Cuddly.
I felt bad for Greinke. To come back from all those anxiety issues, dominate all year, and leave his worst outing of the month for the last day of the season. He missed more pitches than I expected him to, and once Joe Batman broke the scoring dam, they might as well have ended it right there. Of course they didn't, and Delmon Young's second bases-clearing hit of the weekend became absolutely necessary.
Nick Blackburn out-pitched the Cy Young favorite, striking out just as many batters, walking fewer, and doing it all on less pitches. You could catch swordfish with the sinker he had today. Unfortunately he stuck with it a little too much, as Jacobs keyed in on it, catching up to a good one that caught the inside corner. Sometimes, good pitches get hit. Same with the ground-rule double that got him the hook. It sunk out of the zone, but was down the middle, allowing whats-his-name to sweet-spot it to the gap. I wouldn't have pulled Bob Black (his first name is Robert? Awesome). He had everything working nicely, and only used eighty-eight pitches to that point. You want to protect a relatively young arm on three-day's rest, but who do you have to turn to? Rauch would have worked straight out. Mijares was shot from pitching the previous two games and whatever revenge Delmon Young took. Gardy protected his starter, but at the expense of throwing a younger, more fatigued arm out there. Look what happened. I felt so bad for him, hating himself in the dugout. It wasn't right.
All's well that ends well though, and the Twins have been tied. Through their own perseverance yes, but mostly through the Tigers' epic choke job. Who cares about them though. Beat them Royals, and the Metrodome lives on for at least one more game.
I felt bad for Greinke. To come back from all those anxiety issues, dominate all year, and leave his worst outing of the month for the last day of the season. He missed more pitches than I expected him to, and once Joe Batman broke the scoring dam, they might as well have ended it right there. Of course they didn't, and Delmon Young's second bases-clearing hit of the weekend became absolutely necessary.
Nick Blackburn out-pitched the Cy Young favorite, striking out just as many batters, walking fewer, and doing it all on less pitches. You could catch swordfish with the sinker he had today. Unfortunately he stuck with it a little too much, as Jacobs keyed in on it, catching up to a good one that caught the inside corner. Sometimes, good pitches get hit. Same with the ground-rule double that got him the hook. It sunk out of the zone, but was down the middle, allowing whats-his-name to sweet-spot it to the gap. I wouldn't have pulled Bob Black (his first name is Robert? Awesome). He had everything working nicely, and only used eighty-eight pitches to that point. You want to protect a relatively young arm on three-day's rest, but who do you have to turn to? Rauch would have worked straight out. Mijares was shot from pitching the previous two games and whatever revenge Delmon Young took. Gardy protected his starter, but at the expense of throwing a younger, more fatigued arm out there. Look what happened. I felt so bad for him, hating himself in the dugout. It wasn't right.
All's well that ends well though, and the Twins have been tied. Through their own perseverance yes, but mostly through the Tigers' epic choke job. Who cares about them though. Beat them Royals, and the Metrodome lives on for at least one more game.
On pitch-tipping
For those unfamiliar, Joe Mauer has been accused of tipping pitches during Tuesday's double-header. Via YouTube. By a so-called "Twins fan."
Here's a quick interview of the guy who made and posted the video. Here's the Twins' reaction.
I'm a real Twins fan, so naturally I'm buying the "it shouldn't have been that obvious" explanation that Gardenhire gives. Also I think Mauer is the kind-of guy who would admit to it if he was actually caught, and since he denies it, I'm going to believe him.
The Tigers could have easily prevented it by switching signs (MLB teams have a second set of more complicated signs for when a runner's on second). The video claims they did switch signs, but the resolution doesn't really allow for an accurate assessment of this. On the first pitch (a change-up) Mauer gives the same "signal" he does for the curveball later. Assuming Joe can tell the difference between three Tigers' signals, why wouldn't he have three different signals of his own? Additionally, Mauer touches his helmet, and THEN his face around the 2:33 mark, yet the maker of the video ignores this different signal for the same pitch. I think these "signals" are what Mauer's teammates are saying. Nervous habits, which happen to exhibit themselves every time the pitcher gets set.
The video just seems to be made with the same type of sensationalist style of "Loose Change" (a 9/11 conspiracy movie, no link for that crap):
-The "quick glance towards Mauer"... except there's no way to tell if Kubel's looking at Mauer or Verlander
-The "everyone in the game knows it" part. How, exactly, is knowledge viewable in one's body language? Does Verlander look any different than he normally does? Does Leyland look silently aware of the mind games going on between Laird, Verlander, Kubel and Mauer? Or does it just look like they're all intense, because they're playing in a very significant baseball game?
Not that pitch-tipping is cheating, or an irregular occurrence in baseball. This just isn't a case of it. The video-maker got obsessed with this notion of Joe tipping pitches, and ignored irregularities in order to support it.
Here's a quick interview of the guy who made and posted the video. Here's the Twins' reaction.
I'm a real Twins fan, so naturally I'm buying the "it shouldn't have been that obvious" explanation that Gardenhire gives. Also I think Mauer is the kind-of guy who would admit to it if he was actually caught, and since he denies it, I'm going to believe him.
The Tigers could have easily prevented it by switching signs (MLB teams have a second set of more complicated signs for when a runner's on second). The video claims they did switch signs, but the resolution doesn't really allow for an accurate assessment of this. On the first pitch (a change-up) Mauer gives the same "signal" he does for the curveball later. Assuming Joe can tell the difference between three Tigers' signals, why wouldn't he have three different signals of his own? Additionally, Mauer touches his helmet, and THEN his face around the 2:33 mark, yet the maker of the video ignores this different signal for the same pitch. I think these "signals" are what Mauer's teammates are saying. Nervous habits, which happen to exhibit themselves every time the pitcher gets set.
The video just seems to be made with the same type of sensationalist style of "Loose Change" (a 9/11 conspiracy movie, no link for that crap):
-The "quick glance towards Mauer"... except there's no way to tell if Kubel's looking at Mauer or Verlander
-The "everyone in the game knows it" part. How, exactly, is knowledge viewable in one's body language? Does Verlander look any different than he normally does? Does Leyland look silently aware of the mind games going on between Laird, Verlander, Kubel and Mauer? Or does it just look like they're all intense, because they're playing in a very significant baseball game?
Not that pitch-tipping is cheating, or an irregular occurrence in baseball. This just isn't a case of it. The video-maker got obsessed with this notion of Joe tipping pitches, and ignored irregularities in order to support it.
Friday, October 2, 2009
Twins still half in it
That was the most tenuous ten run lead I've ever seen. Ok maybe not. STILL though, this was a pretty damaging win. Manship had his longest outing of the year, and Crain didn't do much to stop the bleeding. Mahay continued to be a band-aid. Kepp Kepp threw ball, ball got hit, ball not always find glove. The Twins' long relief is hurting, mostly because the starters' haven't pitched past the sixth since Tuesday. Fun fact: Royals starter Lenny DiNardo lasted one inning, but the Twins used TWO more pitchers during the course of the game. That's the worst part about scoring five runs in the first inning: you still have to keep watching, the players have to keep playing, and the players don't want to keep playing. I wouldn't either, and that's how comebacks happen.
That first inning though, wow. I never knew Delmon had it in him. Buster Olney's blog (ESPN Insider only) includes a table showing the batters who saw the most pitches the previous day. Guess whose name was near the top? He still has those three pitch strikeouts, but his pitch recognition has improved. Now he needs to learn to be satisfied with getting on base without swinging the bat, which may never happen, but oh well. He's been a secretly big part of the Twins' hot streak (hit .309/.326/.444 (avg/on-base/slugging) in September), and hopefully can be a big part of their future. Now that he's hitting grand slams and all.
The Twins still are relying too much on the Tigers losing, but the chances are improving. Which is more probable, the Twins beating Greinke or Freddy Garcia beating the Tigers? I'm hoping for both, but to bet on one would give even the most degenerate of gamblers pause.
That first inning though, wow. I never knew Delmon had it in him. Buster Olney's blog (ESPN Insider only) includes a table showing the batters who saw the most pitches the previous day. Guess whose name was near the top? He still has those three pitch strikeouts, but his pitch recognition has improved. Now he needs to learn to be satisfied with getting on base without swinging the bat, which may never happen, but oh well. He's been a secretly big part of the Twins' hot streak (hit .309/.326/.444 (avg/on-base/slugging) in September), and hopefully can be a big part of their future. Now that he's hitting grand slams and all.
The Twins still are relying too much on the Tigers losing, but the chances are improving. Which is more probable, the Twins beating Greinke or Freddy Garcia beating the Tigers? I'm hoping for both, but to bet on one would give even the most degenerate of gamblers pause.
Thursday, October 1, 2009
Twins still half in it.
Did they lose? Because it felt like lost. Baker's pitches were all over the place. He couldn't put the ball where he wanted, but luckily the Tigers couldn't either. An effectively wild day, which is good, but an effectively short day as well, which is bad. It's a miracle he made it through the fifth, his pitch count stood at seventy five after three innings. That's ridiculous. The Twins' starters pitched a total of twenty one and a third innings. That's not going to get it done. The starting pitchers' failure to go further into the games has left the bullpen depleted going into this weekend's series against the Royals. Jeff Manship will kick things off against KC, and he's going to need some long relief help. His longest start? Five innings one month ago today.
The offense recovered quite well from last night's brain freeze, with the scrubs and stars contributing equally. An explosion like this always makes you wish they hadn't saved it for a blowout, but such is baseball. The same can be said of all extracurricular activity from Marcus Thames, Jose Mijares, and Jeremy Bonderman. Don't think less of me: I ducked out to go to the gym after the bottom of the eighth, so I missed most of the fun. It's kind of surprising that Mijares had the command to graze Everett's back, but there it was. He probably heard O-Cab complaining about Thames' slide (I don't think Jose speaks English very well, lending Orlando a greater influence over him), and decided to take care of it... to a different batter. I'd have loved nothing more than to have Thames himself plunked, but Adam "Shoulderitis" Everett didn't deserve it. Bad call, Jose, which is exactly what Delmon Young thought when he suffered for it. I hope Gardy was able to heal the emotional as well as physical wounds Mijares caused. A rift in the locker room, between a US and South American player, could have larger consequences than a sore calf.
They're still alive, and tomorrow remains the biggest day of the season. The Tigers could easily lose two of three to the Sox at home, but sweeping the Royals will be tough, mostly because Zach Greinke's pitching on Saturday. Best of luck, Twins.
The offense recovered quite well from last night's brain freeze, with the scrubs and stars contributing equally. An explosion like this always makes you wish they hadn't saved it for a blowout, but such is baseball. The same can be said of all extracurricular activity from Marcus Thames, Jose Mijares, and Jeremy Bonderman. Don't think less of me: I ducked out to go to the gym after the bottom of the eighth, so I missed most of the fun. It's kind of surprising that Mijares had the command to graze Everett's back, but there it was. He probably heard O-Cab complaining about Thames' slide (I don't think Jose speaks English very well, lending Orlando a greater influence over him), and decided to take care of it... to a different batter. I'd have loved nothing more than to have Thames himself plunked, but Adam "Shoulderitis" Everett didn't deserve it. Bad call, Jose, which is exactly what Delmon Young thought when he suffered for it. I hope Gardy was able to heal the emotional as well as physical wounds Mijares caused. A rift in the locker room, between a US and South American player, could have larger consequences than a sore calf.
They're still alive, and tomorrow remains the biggest day of the season. The Tigers could easily lose two of three to the Sox at home, but sweeping the Royals will be tough, mostly because Zach Greinke's pitching on Saturday. Best of luck, Twins.
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