Sunday, October 11, 2009

Complete victory?

That was one boring football game, for really only one reason: The Vikes completely stomped them. As they should have.

The offense was humming. AD got his two touchdowns on only fifteen carries, gaining 69 yards on the ground (4.6 yds/carry, very good but not dominant. Brett Favre got his as well, throwing for a couple hundred yards, keeping drives moving while increasing his lead on the all-time lists: touchdowns and interceptions. The touchdown was about as easy as you can get. Shiancoe got past the coverage, and there was not a safety in sight. The interception was about as bad as you could get. Brett leaked out of the pocket, under pressure, and Brett Favre does not throw balls away. He instead throws them into quadruple coverage, without a passing lane, unless you count the space between James Laurinaitis' hands as a "lane." The first real bad interception of the year for his man Brett, but he seemed to learn from it, not by throwing it away, but avoiding throws into double-plus coverage.

Brett put the defense in a bind with his hubris, but the D was up to the task. The Rams got a field goal, but they started in long field goal range anyway. The Rams put together several long drives against the Vikings, gaining the red zone four times, and gaining Vikings territory at least twice more. Yet all times except one, the Rams gave the Vikings the ball back with unforced fumbles, interceptions, or turnovers on downs. It was a similar pattern to last week's Monday Night Football game, where the opposing offense would gain plenty of yards, but not cash in on what should have been scoring drives by giving the ball away. It's an effective way to keep points off the board, but I don't believe that those big plays will keep happening for the Vikings. They're going to have to start forcing more 3-and-outs, and avoiding the big pass plays that have come mostly on screens and to tight ends. The offense is really clicking right now, along with the big play ability of the defense. The defense just needs to be consistent and explosive. The offense won't move the ball so easily every game, and the defense won't always negate the opponent's chances right before they score.

All in all, there isn't much room for complaint, as the Vikings easily took care of a terrible opponent. For some reason, it still doesn't feel like the Vikes have been tested yet. San Fran just got blown out by Atlanta, and Green Bay still threw for 380+ yards. Until the Vikings D completely dominates and shuts down a decent opponent, I won't be satisfied, and neither should they. They have the personnel to do it, now they just need to execute and start covering opposing tight ends and receivers more consistently. Baltimore will be a good test, and Todd Heap better not have a good game.

Saturday, October 10, 2009

Inverse

So I guess the Wild got to show us what happens when they score the first goal. They started the game very well, putting a lot of pressure on the Sharks D. They created a lot of chances while remaining responsible on their end. When a team maintains possession inside the opponent's zone, you know that they're doing well. Shane Hnidy finally made the Sharks pay with a wicked shot that Andrew Brunette deflected to the attic. It's a play that would NOT have happened last year, as defensemen were not allowed to advance into the offensive zone and take shots under Jacques Lemaire. Something that's remained from the old regime is not the amount of scoring chances, but the Wild's inability to, you know, score on those opportunities. Whether it's by a missed shot, one off the post, a "miraculous save" (read: an inaccurate or weak shot), or too much hesitation before shooting. I noticed instances of all of these in tonight's game. That's how the Wild rank 10th in the NHL in shots on goal average, but only 20th in goals scored average.

Plenty of opportunities, with two goals to show for it, but that still meant a two goal lead halfway through the game. The Wild were aggressive to the puck, keeping their sticks active to disrupt the Sharks' passes and shots. The Sharks seemed completely out of rhythm, and none of their possessions lasted very long. Niklas Backstrom needed only thirteen saves for the first half shutout. If only the game had ended there.

The Sharks are one of the most dangerous teams in the NHL offensively, and they exploded for three in seven and a half minutes of play. The first two were just really good plays by the Sharks: quick one timers that left no chance for Backstrom to save it. The go-ahead goal though, was something else. It was another example of what happens when you leave the opponent unchecked around the goaltender. The Wild defenders both moved with a Shark moving in to the circle, leaving another Shark all by himself with poor Niklas, who had no chance on Dany Heatley's shot, unable to see past the mountain of teal in front of him. The fourth San Jose goal was just plain bad hockey, as Mikko Koivu and Greg Zanon could not decide who should cover Patrick Marleau (one of San Jose's best players). Marleau waltzed up to Backstrom's face before sliding the puck through the five-hole for the comfortable two goal lead the Wild had enjoyed just ten minutes before. Marleau's goal is an extreme example of the defensive lapses the Wild managed to overcome for half the game, but an adjusting team is not going to pull off a road win against a very good team with the kinds of mistakes that adjusting teams make.

All in all though, the Wild put on an impressive offensive performance, minus the most important stat: goals. If they keep up the kind of offensive presence they had against San Jose, the goals will come. Hopefully sooner rather than later, because you never know when they're going to leave the goalie out to dry... again.

Friday, October 9, 2009

Big-name players need to be big-game players

And Joe Nathan is the second biggest name the Twins have. You know what his post-season ERA is? 7.50. Six walks and eight strikeouts. That's before tonight's disaster. Until he shows he can get good hitters out in close games, he's not a good pitcher. He gave up the lead-off single to Tex-message-break-up (he looks like he would, doesn't he?), and Joe let it get to him. Instead of throwing a first pitch strike to A-Roid, he nibbled on the corners like a coward. He decided on a two-strike approach before the at-bat began, and then he decides to challenge the guy, in a hitters count, with a cookie so delicious Franciso Liriano immediately asked for the recipe. A-Hole did not miss, and then the "real" Nathan decided to show up to preserve the tie.

If it was possible to get worse, Nathan did in the next inning. He showed the type of nerves that closers typically feed on, with a pick-off throw that wouldn't have been close even if it had not sailed into the outfield to advance the runner (who, by the way, had very easily stolen second not too long before). No choice then but to walk Derek Cheater. Runners at the corners, one out, and Gardy pulls Joe Nathan for Jose Mijares to face the lefty hitter, Johnny Daemon. Jesus turned Satan sent the ball for what looked like the winning hit, but Orlando Cabrera was playing in, as well as towards second to make a double play. He got a different one than he was playing for, as the Yankee runner on third didn't wait for the ball to drop, and was easily picked off after O-Cab caught the line drive. Nathan got bailed out, just like he did in Tuesday's ninth inning, but by a different pitcher.

Joe Mauer led off immediately after with a double, and consecutive hits from Kubel and Cuddyer sent him home with what should have been the winning run. Delmon Young jumped on the first pitch, hitting it straight to Texas omelette, who also threw out Joe Mauer for the force at home on Go-Go-Out's unforgivably weak grounder. "Wait, Mauer already scored!" you say. I guess I left out the part where left field umpire Phil Cuzzi called Joe's double a foul ball. No, his view was not obstructed. No, he was standing twenty feet away from the ball as it landed fair after being touched by the left fielder in fair territory. Yes the umpire had a New York hair cut, was born in New Jersey, and bore a strong resemblance to the one-armed murderer from The Fugitive. Maybe the Twins would have blown a lead-off double opportunity instead of the bases-loaded-no-out opportunity instead, but I doubt it. The game should have at worst been tied on the shortest home-run ever, but Cuzzi killed the Twins' opportunity, and framed Young and Gomez.

It never should have come to the second paragraph though. Joe Nathan now has more blown saves than saves in the post-season. Granted the sample size is small, but the Twins are never going to be a perennial playoff team like the Yankees. It was all they could do to make it this year. Nathan needs to cash in on the opportunities he's given. If he doesn't, what's the point of keeping him around? Will he magically stop blowing saves if the Twins had a more complete team? No. So I'm going to say something I hope I don't regret: trade Joe Nathan. Even with tonight's game, his value is as high as it will ever be. Plenty of would-be contenders need closers (hello Philadelphia Phillies, St. Louis Cardinals, Tampa Bay Rays, Chicago Cubs, Florida Marlins). The Twins could get at least one really good hitting or pitching prospect from these clubs for Nathan. The key is to wait until after you sign Joe Mauer, because he'll never stay if Nathan is traded beforehand.

Blerg, I can't believe I just wrote that, but I'm sticking to it. Maybe Nathan will get another opportunity, but with the way this series has gone, and with Carl Pavano owing the Yankees for four years of paid vacation, there probably won't be another save situation in this series. My heart is broken, not by the Yankees, but by Nathan's lip roll. Maybe that's what he choked on.

Thursday, October 8, 2009

Ugh

The Wild weren't always a sieve like this. Last year they nearly led the NHL in goals against. Yet with the adjustments to the new system of Todd Richards, the defense has been... lacking. Niklas Backstrom and Josh Harding are both good goaltenders. Both have career save percentages over ninety-percent, much better than the eighty five and seventy three (!) marks they've showed over the last two games. Sometimes numbers don't accurately reflect what actually happens during a game. This is a case of that. Save percentage is limited in that it doesn't take into account the quality of the chances those goals were scored on. If there's four-on-one (actually happened against the Wild on Tuesday), the goalie will be caught out of position trying to keep track of the different passes, any of which could result in an immediate shot. A goal scored in that situation affects save percentage just as much as a dribbling puck that slips through the pads.

That said, the Wild have shown resilience in coming back from the large deficits they're giving themselves. They managed to trim the deficit to just one goal, before their D failed them yet again, giving up an easy goal from Jarrot Stoll's centering pass to the wide-open Teddy Purcell, who put it home before Harding could make it to the far post. Harding did not have a chance, as Nick Schultz was unable to recover to the Wild's zone after getting too aggressive for the equalizer. That's the result of over extending in order to come back and win a game that should have been out of reach. The two goals the Wild gave up in the first three minutes and eighteen seconds? Those are the ones that can be avoided, as both involved deflections from King players that were unchecked in the crease (the area in which Josh Harding tries to prevent goals). This allows those King players to deflect shots, and it allows those players to get in Harding's way. Six foot dudes are hard to see through. The Wild defenders' job is to push those dudes out of the crease. They didn't. Hence, early deficit.

I'm interested to see how the Wild do when they score first, which in Jacques Lemaire's defense first system was a very important thing. This team is different, while still being very strong on special teams (both when they have a power play and when they're short-handed). It's the five-on-five play that's remained their weakness, just in a different way than last year. Last year the defenders and even the center would stay back to a fault, often giving up chances to score goals. This year the Wild have been able to create scoring opportunities... for both themselves and the opponent. Yet they're still learning, and they're going to click in a way that can generate chances for themselves while minimizing the ones they surrender. Don't give up on them yet.

Wednesday, October 7, 2009

Well what did you expect?

Duensing continued the slump, though his defense let him down in spots. Does anyone think Orlando Cabrera is a good defender? I hope Bill Smith doesn't, because bringing him back is the wrong move. Yes I'm already thinking about next season.

All the fancy shmancy baseball analysts tell us power pitching plays well in the post-season, and tonight was a good example of that. Duensing continued his slump (maybe his success wasn't really that meaningful), with his pitch-to-contact approach not working. When you can't get strikeouts with men on base, you're going to allow runners to score, via home-runs or not. Professional line-ups will string hits together, just like the Twins did in the third. Dominant pitchers are able to pitch around lead-off doubles by striking out great hitters like Joe Mauer. The Twins don't have a dominant pitcher, in the majors or in the minors. Until they obtain one through whatever means, they won't have a good shot of winning playoff games. Too many years of using high picks on Duensings instead of Lincecums have sapped the major league rotation of a true ace like Sabathia. Picks like Kyle Gibson may be the start of a new philosophy, but it doesn't help the Twins right now.

I don't want to talk about the actual game, because there were no surprises. The Yankees are just plain better than the Twins. The only shot the Twins have will be to win Friday with Nick Blackburn and the bullpen and position players fully rested from last night's marathon. The Twins got to their hotel at 4am last night, so that's the players' excuse. What's Gardy's for pitching to A-Rod with first base open? I don't like Brendan Harris or the recently slumping Jose Morales playing DH either. What Gomez gives up with his smelly bat he makes up for with his superb glove, which would also put Span in right, who would have snagged A-Rod's single for an out. Kubel's a DH, let him play his natural position. Kubel only became a force when he got regular playing time. The same with Delmon Young (though maybe that was the same as Duensing's mirage). Maybe Gomez could actually get some confidence if he, you know, played?

It's such a let-down after last night's magic, but I'm not giving up, and I'm sure the Twins aren't either.

Tuesday, October 6, 2009

The rainy day has lifted

On the way back from the Twins game, I had completely forgotten that the Wild played their home opener tonight. So I turned on the radio, and the second period was just starting. Awesome, even more Minesota goodness. That south of the (Canadian) border called Chipotle beckoned though, so the Wild would have to wait. When I turned the radio back on, I heard all about Koivu's goal to make it 3-0. No Barracuda, don't feel good, because it wasn't Mikko's, the Wild's number one center. It was Saku, his brother who spurned the Wild for Anaheim. I immediately turned the radio off. And didn't bother watching the rest of the game (my mom claimed the good tv to watch Dancing with the Stars, you can't expect me to watch hockey in not as good HD). Bad decision.

Unable to get excited about the announcement of the Twins' victory and subsequent cheering, the Wild players did what any other hockey players do for inspiration: fisticuffs. All 6' 8" of John Scott upper-cutted some guy to the ice, and it was on like a cattle prod. The Wild scored three unanswered goals to tie the game. The new and improved Marion Gaborik (aka Marty Havlat) had the primary assist on all of these scores. The game went into sudden death extra innings I mean overtime, and the Wild pulled it out with Andrew "Holy crap he played on a torn ACL last year" Brunette's winner. Did you read that? He played with a torn ACL. That's awesomely tough. Wanna give hockey a try?

An unlikely combination

What a game. I'll refrain from yelling, as my voice has suffered enough tonight, but WHAT A GAME.

You could hear a pin drop when Drank His Average silenced the chants of "Al-co-ho-lic! Clap clap clapclapclap" with his home run. He most likely imagined the ball as his wife's face. No I'm not apologizing. I liked that chant. Baker didn't pitch that badly though. A quality start, with only a double and some Domestic Abuse in one inning as his mistakes. He settled down, and gave the Twins a great effort.

There was a strange dichotomy between Gardy and Leyland's bullpen strategy. Jimmy stretch-Armstronged each of his relief pitchers, especially Fernando Rodney, who pitched 3+ innings while blowing the save and losing the game. Good for Jim, though the rest of his bullpen's incompetence left him little choice. The Twins meanwhile, cycled through their entire bullpen save Francisco Liriano (Jeff Manship was warming up in the top of the 12th). The reasonable workload for Rauch, Mahay, and (suddenly gulp) Mijares probably means we'll see them tomorrow, where they'll be needed badly (Brian "Slumping" Duensing is slated to start). I hope Gardy took the right approach.

The voice is shot, as are the emotions. The sober Cabrera's home run could not be believed. There's just no way he took the lead like that. There's no way an aging, swing happy, stone-handed shortstop hit the biggest home run of the season. There's no way an aging, overpaid, Hugo Chavez supporter tied it immediately from what I assume was another fresh home-baked cookie by Matt Guerrier. I guess we can call it even, though Guerrier's recent performances, few as they were, are alarming.

Back and forth, forth and back, the Twins and Tigers trade wasted threats after the eighth. They even trade successful threats as pretty likable Brandon Inge doubles home a man from first, before Cuddly Jesus hits a huge lead-off triple, running home on a similarly huge single by Nick Punto. I mean Matt Tolbert. Then Nick Punto's sac-line-drive is not enough for Alexi "Head in The Game" Casilla's late tag to score. Scoreless eleventh, flat-line. Kepp Kepp throw sinker, Tigers catch up to sinker, except Gerald Laird, who miss scouting report on Kepp Kepp. Gomez has the audacity to hit a leadoff single while I'm in the rest room. Cuddyer advances him on what I swear is a foul ball. Delmon Young is inexplicably, intentionally induced into first base. Casilla provides explanation, but comes up with ANOTHER huge hit, and the crowd can finally celebrate.

I hope I didn't catch swing flu from all of the strangers' high fives. Strange women's elation tempted me to seize them for a makeout session. I'm sure I could have gotten away with it. Everyone was so happy. I'm so happy. Bring on a sweep from the Yanks, I don't care. That experience at the Metrodome tonight was something we can all cherish forever. Except for Tigers fans, who can go to hell.