Thursday, November 19, 2009

Look, They're on TV

The Wolves were going to be bad this year. There's no getting around it. David Kahn tries to tell us that he will not accept the lack of effort and wins, but what can he do? Only three competent players returned from last year's bottom-feeder squad, and even they have never played a prominent role on a winning NBA squad.

Jonny Flynn started hot, but has cooled since and never really played like a point-guard should. Hopefully he'll learn that you can and should pass it when three defenders follow you to the rim. His strength is driving to the hoop, but the league has caught on to that, sending plenty of help to prevent easy lay-ups. Jonny makes some low-percentage shots, but that doesn't mean he should keep taking them. All of Bill Belicheck's non-sense has one great defense: the right decision doesn't always create the best outcome, and the best outcome doesn't always follow the right decision. Flynn will learn, as more and more of his minutes go to the much more polished Ramon Sessions. Though Flynn is not the only Wolf in need of some schooling.

If Kurt Rambis wants to come out and say that he's designing his offense to take mid-to-long-range jumpers, then I'll figuratively table my complaint, but for the moment the Timberwolves, one of the worst shooting teams in the NBA, are taking too many long two-point shots. The long two has all the difficulty of the three without any of the reward. It's the most inefficient shot in basketball (besides the desperation-heave), and most teams design their defense to force an offense into that kind of look. It's only open because the defense is inviting you to take a low-percentage, inefficient shot, keep looking. Not that the Wolves should start jacking up threes either. The only way the Wolves will break this losing streak is through the lay-up, which all of that ball-movement should create. I'm not enough of a strategist to see any easy passing lanes into the paint, but Kurt Rambis should be, and hopefully he'll pass that along to every big that's taking a 15-footer and every guard who's choosing the 18-foot stepback instead of driving the ball. In that respect, Jonny Flynn is doing something right: most of his jumpers are three-point attempts, and everything else happens near the basket, triple-teamed or not.

All in all, the Wolves are just playing too tight. NBA players have been making lay-ups all their life, yet several fast-break attempts turned into games of Tip-In as the first, second, and sometimes third player would miss the easiest shot in basketball. Fangraphs had an article today about the nature of choking. In short: consciously controlling an action that relies on muscle memory (such as shooting a lay-up) messes with the way the brain normally processes that action. So Corey Brewer and Pesch says to himself, "I have to make this lay-up," instead of just letting his muscle memory do what it's meant to do. How does that stop? Who knows. Maybe making lay-ups is a talent the Wolves lack, just like most other conceivable basketball talents.

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