Oh yeah. Brett Favre. He was ok. He didn't make any spectacular plays. He didn't make any stupid plays (with the ball at least). He forced an uncooperative offense into a successful two-minute drill, which was the most impressive thing. His consistency from play to play is what separates him from the T-Jacks of the world. It takes that kind of steadiness to turn second and twenty to a touchdown.
But the Vikings' success does not depend on quarterback play. AD made that clear on the first play from scrimmage, as he went untouched for a 75-yard score. The defense followed his lead, not allowing a drive past the 50 for the entire first quarter. They would eventually succumb to a very good Texan offense, but they never surrendered the lead.
It's interesting to compare the Vikings' and Packers' preseasons. Both teams are undefeated with a relatively similar point differential. Except the Packers have scored twice as many points. It's a matter of style, and though the Pack's offense is flashy, I prefer the manlier punch in the mouth to the shot of a gun. It's still the preseason unfortunately, which only serves to add to the intense longing we all have for the games to count.
Adrian Peterson and the defense are what will send the Vikings to the playoffs, and Favre doing better than 15-35, INT in the playoffs will hopefully be what takes them out of the first round. Assuming he's healthy. Assuming Peterson is healthy. Screw assumptions though. Minnesota sports dominated Sportscenter tonight, and I couldn't be more proud. And excited.
Monday, August 31, 2009
Breaking the Trend(s)
Nick Blackburn's had a rough time of late. He hadn't won since July 10th, putting up an 8+ ERA in that span. His ERA has risen to above 5 after hovering around 3 for most of the first half. He'd kept the Twins afloat by pitching over his head, but had now fallen back to his career norms. He's never going to be a true ace, but the Twins need him to do more bending than breaking to stay in the playoff hunt. Blacky also has had a career-long problem with Jim Thome, most famously giving up the division winning home run to Fat Jim last September. Thome had a career OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage) of over 1.000 (that's really, really good) against Blackburn. At least until tonight.
Blackburn caught Thome looking to end the Sox threat in the first, and found the considerable hole in Jim's swing in the fourth. Nick struck out a career high seven batters, and got enough from Mauer Power and Kubel Strudel (best I could do, sad) to jam a few patterns: his winless streak against Thome, his winless streak since July, and most importantly the Twins' streak of being four and half games back of the division leading Tigers. With Thome's trade to the Dodgers, Blackburn's numbers against him will never be stellar. But he ended it on a nice, significant note.
Up next, another two rookie starters, but with the further depletion of the Chicago lineup, there's no reason the Twins can't push the pale hose further into the ground.
Blackburn caught Thome looking to end the Sox threat in the first, and found the considerable hole in Jim's swing in the fourth. Nick struck out a career high seven batters, and got enough from Mauer Power and Kubel Strudel (best I could do, sad) to jam a few patterns: his winless streak against Thome, his winless streak since July, and most importantly the Twins' streak of being four and half games back of the division leading Tigers. With Thome's trade to the Dodgers, Blackburn's numbers against him will never be stellar. But he ended it on a nice, significant note.
Up next, another two rookie starters, but with the further depletion of the Chicago lineup, there's no reason the Twins can't push the pale hose further into the ground.
Tuesday, August 25, 2009
Delmon Young!
I owe him a debt of gratitude, as he ended the Twins' losing streak of games attended by the funky barracuda at four while extending the Twins' winning streak to a season high five games. It was a great game to watch... after the fourth inning.
Gabino performed as expected: really shaky. Lots of hits, a few walks, one strikeout. His one good inning (the first) limited the damage, though Phil Humber once again made Bill Smith look dumb before Bobby Keppel turned in not a scoreless, but decent enough effort before the Twins pounced on the O's bullpen. That's probably the biggest seperator between contending teams like the Twins and basement rats like the O's: middle relief. Jesse Crain could probably close or setup for the O's, but for the Twins he's a middle reliever, and thank the gods for that. He shut the O's down before giving up a leadoff double that Jose Mijares brilliantly stranded with a couple of popups and a strikeout. The O's weren't able to keep it a tie game.
Delmon Young's on a nice tear right now. Tonight he accounted for three Twins' runs, including the walk-off single. I'd still rather have Garza starting the game with Bartlett batting second, but it's encouraging that Young seems to be turning a corner. The next corner will hopefully include drawing some more walks. And somehow get the Tigers to lose. Still 4.5 back, but it's a lot smaller 4.5 than it used to be.
Gabino performed as expected: really shaky. Lots of hits, a few walks, one strikeout. His one good inning (the first) limited the damage, though Phil Humber once again made Bill Smith look dumb before Bobby Keppel turned in not a scoreless, but decent enough effort before the Twins pounced on the O's bullpen. That's probably the biggest seperator between contending teams like the Twins and basement rats like the O's: middle relief. Jesse Crain could probably close or setup for the O's, but for the Twins he's a middle reliever, and thank the gods for that. He shut the O's down before giving up a leadoff double that Jose Mijares brilliantly stranded with a couple of popups and a strikeout. The O's weren't able to keep it a tie game.
Delmon Young's on a nice tear right now. Tonight he accounted for three Twins' runs, including the walk-off single. I'd still rather have Garza starting the game with Bartlett batting second, but it's encouraging that Young seems to be turning a corner. The next corner will hopefully include drawing some more walks. And somehow get the Tigers to lose. Still 4.5 back, but it's a lot smaller 4.5 than it used to be.
Can another rookie continue the streak?
The Twins have put together another four-game winning streak, albeit against a couple of bottom-dwellers. They'll face the same one tonight, but instead of their best starter taking the mound, they'll send rookie Armando Gabino, who has only started five games in his minor league career. His numbers during those five starts have been impressive (a 2-something ERA), but despite that, fangraphs projects him to have an ERA of over 5 in the majors. Projections can always be wrong, but just as I have for a couple weeks, I'm tempering my expectations.
Advanced baseball statistics measure a pitcher's worth by how much he strikes out, walks, and gives up homeruns to batters. Indirectly, the amount of groundballs a pitcher induces can reduce the amount of homeruns a pitcher gives up. Fangraphs doesn't have batted ball data for Gabino, but his strikeout rate (5.76/9IP) in 2009 is low enough to assume he's another "put the ball in play" pitcher that the Twins are famous for. The problem is, the ERA's of those types of pitchers do not accurately reflect how well they're actually pitching. Nick Blackburn, the de facto ace of the Twins' first half, is a good example of this. Nick limits walks but also doesn't have the stuff to consistently strike out batters. His ERA was absurdly low (rivalring those of Felix Hernandez and Roy Halladay), but what's called FIP (fielding independent pitching, ERA when considering only strikeouts, walks, and homeruns) said that he was pitching at a 4.5+ level. Nick was still allowing a bunch of hits, he just managed to avoid one with runners in scoring position and giving up homeruns at a rate that no pitcher could sustain. So in short, he was pitching well, but also getting lucky. Now that the luck has turned the other cheek, his ERA is more reflective of his FIP.
Which brings us back to Gabino, who has a very low ERA in his only starts in professional ball, but his ERA is well below his FIP, which is why fangraphs is projecting him to have an MLB ERA two full runs higher than his AAA ERA. Which is why when I'm at the game tonight, I'm going to cheer for every zero he puts up, knowing it might be an uncommon thing. But of course, statistics by themselves can be just as reliable as the "old school baseball" folks who think Yuniesky Betancourt is a good defender.
Advanced baseball statistics measure a pitcher's worth by how much he strikes out, walks, and gives up homeruns to batters. Indirectly, the amount of groundballs a pitcher induces can reduce the amount of homeruns a pitcher gives up. Fangraphs doesn't have batted ball data for Gabino, but his strikeout rate (5.76/9IP) in 2009 is low enough to assume he's another "put the ball in play" pitcher that the Twins are famous for. The problem is, the ERA's of those types of pitchers do not accurately reflect how well they're actually pitching. Nick Blackburn, the de facto ace of the Twins' first half, is a good example of this. Nick limits walks but also doesn't have the stuff to consistently strike out batters. His ERA was absurdly low (rivalring those of Felix Hernandez and Roy Halladay), but what's called FIP (fielding independent pitching, ERA when considering only strikeouts, walks, and homeruns) said that he was pitching at a 4.5+ level. Nick was still allowing a bunch of hits, he just managed to avoid one with runners in scoring position and giving up homeruns at a rate that no pitcher could sustain. So in short, he was pitching well, but also getting lucky. Now that the luck has turned the other cheek, his ERA is more reflective of his FIP.
Which brings us back to Gabino, who has a very low ERA in his only starts in professional ball, but his ERA is well below his FIP, which is why fangraphs is projecting him to have an MLB ERA two full runs higher than his AAA ERA. Which is why when I'm at the game tonight, I'm going to cheer for every zero he puts up, knowing it might be an uncommon thing. But of course, statistics by themselves can be just as reliable as the "old school baseball" folks who think Yuniesky Betancourt is a good defender.
Friday, August 21, 2009
The Worst Perfect QB Rating you'll see...
... belongs to Tarvaris Jackson. Daily Norseman has their own take, but still seem to think that these are hollow numbers because the complete lack of pressure facing Jackson. I would argue that the performance itself was not as good as the numbers.
Against KC's first-team defense, T-Jack missed Sidney Rice out of bounds on a deep ball (following a pump fake... to Sidney Rice), threw a pass when he was five yards past the line of scrimmage, and put together a decent drive of hitting stationary receivers and extending the play with his legs. Even his touchdown pass wasn't that impressive. He rolled out to avoid an unblocked defender, and threw behind his savior Shiancoe, exposing the tight end to a hit in mid air. Shiancoe looked a little shook up on the play, which should have included any contact in the end zone.
The next drive seemed impressive, with Jackson hitting Shiancoe on a seam route for what seems like the first time in T-Jack's career. Breeming with confidence, he waited and waited and waited and finally hit a standing still Sidney Rice within field goal range, but by dallying Jackson had used all of the seven seconds he had to gain some yards and call a timeout. Hesitation is at the heart of Jackson's game. Either Chilly has pounded caution into Tarvaris' brain or he just doesn't know which way to go with the ball, either way he holds onto the ball. That's not a good thing. Even on his best throw of the night, the long TD to Darius Reynaud, Jackson took a few seconds to find his man. This of course was against the second-team defense of the Chiefs, one of the worst defensive teams in the NFL last year, playing the 3-4 for the first time.
No doubt that I've taken the glass-half-empty approach when it comes to T-Jack's performance last night, but when has he ever earned a better one? If Favre gets injured... and then Sage gets injured... maybe we'll be able to see if Jackson can perform some real NFL passes against real NFL defenses. We might not get that chance, and personally I don't mind.
Against KC's first-team defense, T-Jack missed Sidney Rice out of bounds on a deep ball (following a pump fake... to Sidney Rice), threw a pass when he was five yards past the line of scrimmage, and put together a decent drive of hitting stationary receivers and extending the play with his legs. Even his touchdown pass wasn't that impressive. He rolled out to avoid an unblocked defender, and threw behind his savior Shiancoe, exposing the tight end to a hit in mid air. Shiancoe looked a little shook up on the play, which should have included any contact in the end zone.
The next drive seemed impressive, with Jackson hitting Shiancoe on a seam route for what seems like the first time in T-Jack's career. Breeming with confidence, he waited and waited and waited and finally hit a standing still Sidney Rice within field goal range, but by dallying Jackson had used all of the seven seconds he had to gain some yards and call a timeout. Hesitation is at the heart of Jackson's game. Either Chilly has pounded caution into Tarvaris' brain or he just doesn't know which way to go with the ball, either way he holds onto the ball. That's not a good thing. Even on his best throw of the night, the long TD to Darius Reynaud, Jackson took a few seconds to find his man. This of course was against the second-team defense of the Chiefs, one of the worst defensive teams in the NFL last year, playing the 3-4 for the first time.
No doubt that I've taken the glass-half-empty approach when it comes to T-Jack's performance last night, but when has he ever earned a better one? If Favre gets injured... and then Sage gets injured... maybe we'll be able to see if Jackson can perform some real NFL passes against real NFL defenses. We might not get that chance, and personally I don't mind.
Forget Rubio
It's a shame how far the Timberwolves have fallen over the past few years. From near conference champions to offering ticket prices based on how the lottery goes. It didn't go very well this year, but thank heavens for Memphis and Sacramento's managers/owners sucking even more than the 'Wolves', because Ricky Rubio managed to fall to number 5. And then we took another point guard. I'm beginning to think that it wasn't such a bad thing.
If Rubio ends up playing in the NBA this season it'll just be icing on the cake, and will only make Rambis' job more difficult in dividing the minutes between Ricky and Johnny Flynn. I personally wouldn't mind if Ricky stayed in Europe for a year or even two, because I'm into Flynn.
I can't pretend to be an astute basketball mind. What I've seen of either player does not create equal footing for both:
-Rubio: A youtube highlight reel
-Flynn: The six overtime game, nba summer league
Regardless, it was on draft night that my first impressions were made, and nothing that's happened since then has changed them. Rubio's name was called, and he could barely manage a smile. He did not look happy. Whether this was due to his fall in the draft and the ensuing buyout complications, or because of the team that drafted him, I can't tell, but I don't care. Johnny Flynn couldn't stop beaming when he was drafted. He looked like a young man appreciative of where he was, not the snotty teenager who couldn't wait to go back to Spain.
Until Flynn completely bottoms out in a real NBA game, I'll continue to keep this irrational attachment, just like how I'll remain reticent on Rubio until I see him do something besides a behind-the-back pass against a bunch of Spanish dopes. Who knows how it'll play out over the long haul, but for the moment I'm happy that Flynn is getting a chance to put that smile and charisma to work.
If Rubio ends up playing in the NBA this season it'll just be icing on the cake, and will only make Rambis' job more difficult in dividing the minutes between Ricky and Johnny Flynn. I personally wouldn't mind if Ricky stayed in Europe for a year or even two, because I'm into Flynn.
I can't pretend to be an astute basketball mind. What I've seen of either player does not create equal footing for both:
-Rubio: A youtube highlight reel
-Flynn: The six overtime game, nba summer league
Regardless, it was on draft night that my first impressions were made, and nothing that's happened since then has changed them. Rubio's name was called, and he could barely manage a smile. He did not look happy. Whether this was due to his fall in the draft and the ensuing buyout complications, or because of the team that drafted him, I can't tell, but I don't care. Johnny Flynn couldn't stop beaming when he was drafted. He looked like a young man appreciative of where he was, not the snotty teenager who couldn't wait to go back to Spain.
Until Flynn completely bottoms out in a real NBA game, I'll continue to keep this irrational attachment, just like how I'll remain reticent on Rubio until I see him do something besides a behind-the-back pass against a bunch of Spanish dopes. Who knows how it'll play out over the long haul, but for the moment I'm happy that Flynn is getting a chance to put that smile and charisma to work.
Thursday, August 20, 2009
From bad to mediocre
Two games does not a turnaround make, but any winning streak at this point should be celebrated. The sad thing about the Twins' recent fall from Earth is that the offense has been really, really good. Since that oh so sweet and oh so fleeting sweep of the White Sox at the end July, the Twins have averaged 5.94 runs per game. A "quality start" is defined by six innings pitched with three earned runs or less, so by extrapolation you could say a "quality offense" would have to score at least four runs to win with a "quality" performance by the starting pitcher. Lucky for the Twins they've averaged almost two more runs than that, which brings us to the major problem the Twins are facing in their starting pitching.
The game recaps I've read spoke of Baker's outing last night as tough but admirable. Four runs in 5.1 innings. That makes for a 6.75 ERA for the game. That's not good or admirable, it's atrocious. It only speaks to how bad the other starters have been (Pavano's 5 in 4 , Liriano's 8 in 2, and every Swarzak outing in August). With the starting pitching struggling, the bullpen has started to put it back together despite the extended innings (or maybe because of them). So there are good things to take from this bad month, aside from Joe Mauer's Ted Williams impression.
One can always hope that this series in Texas will be the start of something good, but let's face it: starting pitching is what wins you ball games on a consistent basis, and these past two games were not won with starting pitching. It's an interesting contrast, seeing these two teams play each other. The Twins, always known for solid pitching and defense, have traded strategies with the normally slugging Rangers. The Twins, even with their hot offense, have had their worst month of the season as their pitching is just not good enough to compete. The Rangers, with an improved pitching staff and infield, have overcome a regression in offense to stay in contention.
The game recaps I've read spoke of Baker's outing last night as tough but admirable. Four runs in 5.1 innings. That makes for a 6.75 ERA for the game. That's not good or admirable, it's atrocious. It only speaks to how bad the other starters have been (Pavano's 5 in 4 , Liriano's 8 in 2, and every Swarzak outing in August). With the starting pitching struggling, the bullpen has started to put it back together despite the extended innings (or maybe because of them). So there are good things to take from this bad month, aside from Joe Mauer's Ted Williams impression.
One can always hope that this series in Texas will be the start of something good, but let's face it: starting pitching is what wins you ball games on a consistent basis, and these past two games were not won with starting pitching. It's an interesting contrast, seeing these two teams play each other. The Twins, always known for solid pitching and defense, have traded strategies with the normally slugging Rangers. The Twins, even with their hot offense, have had their worst month of the season as their pitching is just not good enough to compete. The Rangers, with an improved pitching staff and infield, have overcome a regression in offense to stay in contention.
Tuesday, August 18, 2009
Favre, Favre Away
I can't believe it
I dismissed Jay Glazer's recent speculation as just that: speculation. I wanted to believe that Vikings management wouldn't cave to an over-the-hill prima donna's desire to avoid training camp. It is already ten days later than when he joined the New York Jets last year, and I'm a firm believer that the physical preparation of training camp is a necessity for the health and continued high performance over the course of a season. Favre, Ryan Grant, Steven Jackson, and Larry Johnson are all examples of players who entered training camp late, and suffered injuries and poor performance the following season.
I doubt how quickly Favre can adapt to the Vikings offense. I doubt how quickly he can get comfortable with the Vikings' receivers, but most of all I doubt his ability to be in good enough shape to avoid not only last year's late season fade, but the poor late-season performance that he's shown in recent seasons (since 2004 December has been his worst month).
Just like with the Jets last year, I don't expect this to end well. It's hard to say that Favre would do worse than Sage Rosenfels, but I don't think the drop off would be extreme enough to justify this one year push for a Super Bowl. Sage is more mobile, which will help avoid the sacks that could at any point end Favre's career. The Vikings offensive line wasn't as good as advertised last year, and this year will have two new members. Pass protection will continue to be a problem, and Favre is going to get injured sooner or later. What then? Does Childress have the balls to end the streak? I hope he does, because the Vikings season may depend on it.
I dismissed Jay Glazer's recent speculation as just that: speculation. I wanted to believe that Vikings management wouldn't cave to an over-the-hill prima donna's desire to avoid training camp. It is already ten days later than when he joined the New York Jets last year, and I'm a firm believer that the physical preparation of training camp is a necessity for the health and continued high performance over the course of a season. Favre, Ryan Grant, Steven Jackson, and Larry Johnson are all examples of players who entered training camp late, and suffered injuries and poor performance the following season.
I doubt how quickly Favre can adapt to the Vikings offense. I doubt how quickly he can get comfortable with the Vikings' receivers, but most of all I doubt his ability to be in good enough shape to avoid not only last year's late season fade, but the poor late-season performance that he's shown in recent seasons (since 2004 December has been his worst month).
Just like with the Jets last year, I don't expect this to end well. It's hard to say that Favre would do worse than Sage Rosenfels, but I don't think the drop off would be extreme enough to justify this one year push for a Super Bowl. Sage is more mobile, which will help avoid the sacks that could at any point end Favre's career. The Vikings offensive line wasn't as good as advertised last year, and this year will have two new members. Pass protection will continue to be a problem, and Favre is going to get injured sooner or later. What then? Does Childress have the balls to end the streak? I hope he does, because the Vikings season may depend on it.
Monday, August 17, 2009
The Funking Line
Welcome the funkiest place on the internet to read/discuss Minnesota pro sports. Think of it as therapy, for you and me, because if you're a Minnesota professional sports fan, you need it.
Summer's a dry spell in the sports world, but baseball usually makes up for that. The Twins entered this season with high hopes based on a young, promising rotation and a couple of elite position players. Many popular sports websites predicted that they would win the division based on these factors, and mostly the assumption that the starting rotation, anchored by Francisco Liriano and Scott Baker, would not regress. Well, it happened. Big time. And while Baker has started to find himself again, Liriano continues to suffer from pitching schizophrenia.
I'm still going to follow and watch the games, but I've adjusted my emotions so that I don't kill myself with each loss. The Twins' recent slide may have saved my life, as their inconsistency through July was almost more maddening than their consistent failure now. The real question though, is how the Twins will do next year.
2009 will be the most important off-season in Twins' history. They need to solidify their rotation, not just to compete next year but to prove to Joe Mauer that he can win with his hometown team. And it all starts tonight with the draft signing deadline. Not to necessarily help the rotation in 2009 (though Gibson could turn into next year's Rick Porcello), but to prove to Joe that the organization is willing to pay more for top end talent.
Are you aware that Glen Perkins was a first-round draft pick? Kudos to the Twins for finding a functional major player in the draft, but players like Phil Hughes, Huston Street, and Dustin Pedroia were selected afterward. The Twins need to select and sign top level talent to compete. Kyle Gibson represents such talent, and if they do not sign him, it will be one more reason for Joe Mauer to go to a team that not only can give him and other top free agents more money, but also top draft talent as well.
UPDATE: Kyle Gibson has signed for a $1.8M bonus. Rock.
So this is my first sports blog, and it will evolve as I become more comfortable, but feel free to provide any feedback on my writing, or my opinions.
Summer's a dry spell in the sports world, but baseball usually makes up for that. The Twins entered this season with high hopes based on a young, promising rotation and a couple of elite position players. Many popular sports websites predicted that they would win the division based on these factors, and mostly the assumption that the starting rotation, anchored by Francisco Liriano and Scott Baker, would not regress. Well, it happened. Big time. And while Baker has started to find himself again, Liriano continues to suffer from pitching schizophrenia.
I'm still going to follow and watch the games, but I've adjusted my emotions so that I don't kill myself with each loss. The Twins' recent slide may have saved my life, as their inconsistency through July was almost more maddening than their consistent failure now. The real question though, is how the Twins will do next year.
2009 will be the most important off-season in Twins' history. They need to solidify their rotation, not just to compete next year but to prove to Joe Mauer that he can win with his hometown team. And it all starts tonight with the draft signing deadline. Not to necessarily help the rotation in 2009 (though Gibson could turn into next year's Rick Porcello), but to prove to Joe that the organization is willing to pay more for top end talent.
Are you aware that Glen Perkins was a first-round draft pick? Kudos to the Twins for finding a functional major player in the draft, but players like Phil Hughes, Huston Street, and Dustin Pedroia were selected afterward. The Twins need to select and sign top level talent to compete. Kyle Gibson represents such talent, and if they do not sign him, it will be one more reason for Joe Mauer to go to a team that not only can give him and other top free agents more money, but also top draft talent as well.
UPDATE: Kyle Gibson has signed for a $1.8M bonus. Rock.
So this is my first sports blog, and it will evolve as I become more comfortable, but feel free to provide any feedback on my writing, or my opinions.
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